If all indications were a weekly injection like HI
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Posted On: 01/27/2021 2:40:07 AM
If all indications were a weekly injection like HIV then we'd need 19.2 million patients to hit that 2 billion doses. A few indications may be like HIV with a continuing dose. But some will be longer term doses with an endpoint like cancer and some should be shorter term with an endpoint. Dosage timing may also vary outside of weekly injections.
Even given dosage variations with 65 indications and most likely quite a few more than that and if we can bring the price down to $35,000 a year/ $673 per 700mg dose than 20 million+ patients (at any point in time) may be possible worldwide. Which would be 2 billion vials but it won't happen anytime soon.
Of course with lowered price and the cut given to overseas distributors revenue and earnings take a hit. But $700 billion gross with a 20% net is still $140 billion in earnings. $197 a share with 1x P/E. I think that could comfortably give us a four figure share price.
Even given dosage variations with 65 indications and most likely quite a few more than that and if we can bring the price down to $35,000 a year/ $673 per 700mg dose than 20 million+ patients (at any point in time) may be possible worldwide. Which would be 2 billion vials but it won't happen anytime soon.
Of course with lowered price and the cut given to overseas distributors revenue and earnings take a hit. But $700 billion gross with a 20% net is still $140 billion in earnings. $197 a share with 1x P/E. I think that could comfortably give us a four figure share price.
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