Statistians please respond. My p value estimate is
Post# of 148160
(Telling us about the current 87 deaths, may be the most powerful statement Nader made today, regarding short and midterm concerns, and regarding the reality that leronlimab will be saving lives very soon)
87 deaths total. 260 folks in Leronlimab group, 130 folks in placebo group.
14.3% died in earlier Leronlimab eIND group (10 of 70)
Say 14.3% dies in LL group in our Phase III s/c trial (though SOC improved)
14.3% of 260 = 37 deaths in Leronlimab group
Thus 50 deaths in placebo group out of 130
So in a placebo group of 260, total of 100 would have died.
Thus, Leronlimab reduces deaths from 100 out of 260.....to 37 out of 260.
100 deaths reduced by 63, down to 37 = 63% reduction in death rate
Another mathmatical approach:
100/260 = 38.5% placebo death rate and 37/260 = 14.2% leronlimab death rate
Reduction from 38.5% down to 14.2%,
Reduction % = 38.5-14.2/38.5 = 63% reduction in death rate with Leronlimab
If this math is anywhere near actual s/c trial data, EUA is truly eminmant.
If assumption that early eIND death rate of 14.4% with leronlimab is quite off, we still should be in very good shape for p value and EUA.