Realistic fair value stock price - back of the napkin
Realistic fair value stock price - back of the napkin scenarios for $SFOR based on the assumption they don't fumble their golden opportunity in launching SafeVChat. Current Share Price: 0.07, Shares outstanding 414m - MrktCap : 29m - Target share price -> $0.40 - $0.60 (see below). First we need to address recent important developments in shares outstanding and company financials. The financials on Yahoo finance need adjustment for recent shares being disbursed by the company. The real shares outstanding are now 414m instead of the 194m stated. The paying down of toxic debt by issuing 220m additional shares has undoubtedly the watered down the share price recently as the receipients unloaded a good portion of them into the market. Adjusting for the real OS we get a MktCap of 28.980m (instead of Yahoo's 13.008m). Strikeforce current liabilities in November 2019 ending quarter were $15.260m. The bulk of this was in convertable notes. We expect that the massive December share issuance (220m shares) will have cleared most of this debt. If the recipients redeemed just half of these at an average price of $0.12 they garnered $13.20m in compensation. Bottom line here is we expect that the balance sheet has been cleaned up nicely. The launch: In the USA in 2020, there are 100 million employees in companies having between 5-50 employees. Zoom in 2017 had around 700m users paying approximately $216/yr in license fees. Total revenue that year was $151.478m. According to the CEO of Strikeforce: "We are working hard over the weekend; continuing to onboard, train, and setup for he hundreds of companies that have signed up." Taking this at face value we can assume they are signing up 201 new companies with an average of 50 employees each. Assuming an increasing monthly ramp up (10% more each month) we get a potential of 236m paying users by year end 2021. Cut this number in half and we get estimated realized 2021 revenue of $22.6m. Now to the stock price - conservatively assuming a future share dilution to raise money for the ramp up during the year. Strikeforce's current price to sales ratio (P/S) is 11 whereas Zoom has a 60 ratio (ranging between 30-120 this year). Using a P/S of 11 and our estimated 2021 revenue together with a 50% increase in outstanding shares - we get a fair value share price for Strikeforce of $0.40. Assuming no share dilution brings the SP up to $0.60. Hopefully this has given some people a more realistic way to view this potentially up and coming company.
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