I just ran some loose figures for COVID revenues f
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Posted On: 12/12/2020 7:52:08 PM
I just ran some loose figures for COVID revenues for someone else and decided to post it.
NP said priced like remdesivir which equates to $1,500 a vial. That's not set in stone and will probably change. When rolling HIV BLA started they were talking about $120,000 a year. I made a post detailing why $35,000 a year would be a much better price target. A few days later NP announced the price would most likely be $35,000 a year. That's when I knew NP was reading the forum. Of course having to split profit with Vyera they upped it to $60,000.
At $6,000 that's dirt cheap to save someone's life. But the price needs to stay consist and competitive across a whole range of indications. They may make it $1,500 a vial until HIV approval then drop the price. But I'll stick with $1,153 since HIV may come online mid-year.
The big unknown is what is the split with American Regent? The Vyera split is the best deal I've ever seen. With the overwhelming demand for Covid I would expect at least that good.
$1153 dose (2 vials) - 40% discounts = $692 x 50% = $346 + $75 cost of manufacture = $421 net to Cytodyn. $210 per vial
$210 x 7.2m vials = $1.152 billion revenue
What NP doesn't seem to have considered is that many other countries standards for manufacturing aren't up to FDA standards and they will shortcut the approval process for manufacture. If we allow manufacturing elsewhere the number of vials available to low GDP countries will increase but the price in those countries will be less.
As a rough figure I've deemed revenue for sales of drugs outside the U.S. to equal U.S. sales. This being a pandemic though I would expect 2x revenue possibly higher.
So then we have $1.152 billion x 3 = $3.456 billion revenue
As a rule of thumb on calculating share price I use a conservative 5x revenue or 12x earnings. Since our overhead is so low 12x earning would be more accurate.
$3.456 billion revenue - $300 million estimated expenses = $3.156 billion
$3.156 billion x 12 = $37.87 billion market cap
$37.87 billion market cap / 700 million shares = $54 a share.
no outside manufacturing - $1.152 billion revenue x 12 = $13.824 billion market cap
$13.824 billion / 700 million shares = $19.74 a share
I've always said after Covid approval the share price should be between $15 - $20 a share.
Of course those figures don't take into account investor excitement. A fairly unknown company coming up with a blockbuster could temporarily drive the price much higher.
NP said priced like remdesivir which equates to $1,500 a vial. That's not set in stone and will probably change. When rolling HIV BLA started they were talking about $120,000 a year. I made a post detailing why $35,000 a year would be a much better price target. A few days later NP announced the price would most likely be $35,000 a year. That's when I knew NP was reading the forum. Of course having to split profit with Vyera they upped it to $60,000.
At $6,000 that's dirt cheap to save someone's life. But the price needs to stay consist and competitive across a whole range of indications. They may make it $1,500 a vial until HIV approval then drop the price. But I'll stick with $1,153 since HIV may come online mid-year.
The big unknown is what is the split with American Regent? The Vyera split is the best deal I've ever seen. With the overwhelming demand for Covid I would expect at least that good.
$1153 dose (2 vials) - 40% discounts = $692 x 50% = $346 + $75 cost of manufacture = $421 net to Cytodyn. $210 per vial
$210 x 7.2m vials = $1.152 billion revenue
What NP doesn't seem to have considered is that many other countries standards for manufacturing aren't up to FDA standards and they will shortcut the approval process for manufacture. If we allow manufacturing elsewhere the number of vials available to low GDP countries will increase but the price in those countries will be less.
As a rough figure I've deemed revenue for sales of drugs outside the U.S. to equal U.S. sales. This being a pandemic though I would expect 2x revenue possibly higher.
So then we have $1.152 billion x 3 = $3.456 billion revenue
As a rule of thumb on calculating share price I use a conservative 5x revenue or 12x earnings. Since our overhead is so low 12x earning would be more accurate.
$3.456 billion revenue - $300 million estimated expenses = $3.156 billion
$3.156 billion x 12 = $37.87 billion market cap
$37.87 billion market cap / 700 million shares = $54 a share.
no outside manufacturing - $1.152 billion revenue x 12 = $13.824 billion market cap
$13.824 billion / 700 million shares = $19.74 a share
I've always said after Covid approval the share price should be between $15 - $20 a share.
Of course those figures don't take into account investor excitement. A fairly unknown company coming up with a blockbuster could temporarily drive the price much higher.
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