Yeah, I said billions of vials so I will try to la
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Posted On: 12/11/2020 2:16:20 AM
Yeah, I said billions of vials so I will try to lay down my thinking on this.
Before today I was thinking in those numbers but as the CC went on, with each indication discussed today, the numbers just kept climbing.
There are about 70 million Covid cases now world wide that we know about. It looks like we will double or triple that number by the middle of next year. Let's say it doubles. An article today estimated that one third of those infected have some long hauler symptoms. Probably half of those would not need Leronlimab altho I believe all of them should get it because their immune systems are probably out of homeostasis - they will be more susceptible to the next mass infection that comes down the road.
Let's start adding up the numbers for Covid by the middle of next year. 140 million divided by 3 is about 47 million. I don't know how many doses of Leronlimab it make take to treat a long-hauler but let's say 3 vials each - 147 million vials. We can add here 140 million X 3% for S/C patients who get 4 vials apiece, that's about 17 million vials.
On to HIV. There are roughly 38 million worldwide living with HIV. I am not going to consider who can pay for Leronlimab or how it would be delivered to them but I will explain why later. So let us say 38M times 52 doses a year (2 vials per dose). Comes out to 3.95 billion doses per year. Presently there are about 1.7 million new HIV cases per year - time 52 X 2 = 177M vials for these people alone.
Today in the CC they were talking about the prophylactic use of Leronlimab for HIV. I have no idea how to calculate those numbers.
We have 65 indications for which Leronlimab might be the treatment. Again, I have no real idea how to calculate this number but just for the hell of it, let's really low-ball this at 1 billion doses or 2 billion vials, for all other indications!
How about stockpiles of Leronlimab? Let's say a billion vials worldwide for whatever ails us (low-ball!).
But now the fun part. We have 8 billion people on the planet. About 1 billion of them live on less that $2 a day. Let's say that 1 billion could afford Leronlimab if they needed it. But let's consider the cost to our societies of not treating everyone who could potentially need Leronlimab.
What is the average cost per day worldwide for all the people who could use Leronlimab and are not getting it? These people probably can't contribute to society economically at all or very poorly. My guess is that the average loss in terms of loss to social contribution is staggering. If there was any wisdom to a government about this social cost, they would gladly order up all the Leronlimab they could.
The payback would be tremendous. Less health costs directly, many more people leading productive lives, not limping along in middle and old age but thriving and contributing, less care taking of people with compromised health, more attention paid to the welfare of the young by those who are older because the older are doing better, a feedback loop, etc.
This suggests that Leronlimab given to the mild to moderate is not a waste. If they have symptoms, they have reached the immunological stage and their immune system is not up to speed of those who are asymptomatic. Give Leronlimab to them all, 2 vials each. Now you are talking about the full 140 million treated by the middle of next year with, say 2 vials each.
But how many people could we potentially treat until this pandemic ends? Is it going to last 5 years? Could it be that there is more benefit to taking Leronlimab than getting a vaccine with its lack of staying power, while Leronlimab could be curing what ails you?
How many vials would it take to do the work of all the half-assed, dangerous drugs out there that Leronlimab could treat better? I'd say many billions.
I apologize for the rambling nature of this post but this is really back of the envelope stuff and I claim no expertise in any of this. But I hope my calculation are at least pointed in the right direction. Please tell me if I'm way off.
Before today I was thinking in those numbers but as the CC went on, with each indication discussed today, the numbers just kept climbing.
There are about 70 million Covid cases now world wide that we know about. It looks like we will double or triple that number by the middle of next year. Let's say it doubles. An article today estimated that one third of those infected have some long hauler symptoms. Probably half of those would not need Leronlimab altho I believe all of them should get it because their immune systems are probably out of homeostasis - they will be more susceptible to the next mass infection that comes down the road.
Let's start adding up the numbers for Covid by the middle of next year. 140 million divided by 3 is about 47 million. I don't know how many doses of Leronlimab it make take to treat a long-hauler but let's say 3 vials each - 147 million vials. We can add here 140 million X 3% for S/C patients who get 4 vials apiece, that's about 17 million vials.
On to HIV. There are roughly 38 million worldwide living with HIV. I am not going to consider who can pay for Leronlimab or how it would be delivered to them but I will explain why later. So let us say 38M times 52 doses a year (2 vials per dose). Comes out to 3.95 billion doses per year. Presently there are about 1.7 million new HIV cases per year - time 52 X 2 = 177M vials for these people alone.
Today in the CC they were talking about the prophylactic use of Leronlimab for HIV. I have no idea how to calculate those numbers.
We have 65 indications for which Leronlimab might be the treatment. Again, I have no real idea how to calculate this number but just for the hell of it, let's really low-ball this at 1 billion doses or 2 billion vials, for all other indications!
How about stockpiles of Leronlimab? Let's say a billion vials worldwide for whatever ails us (low-ball!).
But now the fun part. We have 8 billion people on the planet. About 1 billion of them live on less that $2 a day. Let's say that 1 billion could afford Leronlimab if they needed it. But let's consider the cost to our societies of not treating everyone who could potentially need Leronlimab.
What is the average cost per day worldwide for all the people who could use Leronlimab and are not getting it? These people probably can't contribute to society economically at all or very poorly. My guess is that the average loss in terms of loss to social contribution is staggering. If there was any wisdom to a government about this social cost, they would gladly order up all the Leronlimab they could.
The payback would be tremendous. Less health costs directly, many more people leading productive lives, not limping along in middle and old age but thriving and contributing, less care taking of people with compromised health, more attention paid to the welfare of the young by those who are older because the older are doing better, a feedback loop, etc.
This suggests that Leronlimab given to the mild to moderate is not a waste. If they have symptoms, they have reached the immunological stage and their immune system is not up to speed of those who are asymptomatic. Give Leronlimab to them all, 2 vials each. Now you are talking about the full 140 million treated by the middle of next year with, say 2 vials each.
But how many people could we potentially treat until this pandemic ends? Is it going to last 5 years? Could it be that there is more benefit to taking Leronlimab than getting a vaccine with its lack of staying power, while Leronlimab could be curing what ails you?
How many vials would it take to do the work of all the half-assed, dangerous drugs out there that Leronlimab could treat better? I'd say many billions.
I apologize for the rambling nature of this post but this is really back of the envelope stuff and I claim no expertise in any of this. But I hope my calculation are at least pointed in the right direction. Please tell me if I'm way off.
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