I'm not sure that the $5B - $10B would be showing
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Posted On: 12/10/2020 9:29:57 PM
I'm not sure that the $5B - $10B would be showing up in CytoDyn's checkbook balance.
I ran some numbers earlier in the year and came up with what I thought an accurate CytoDyn "take home" net that was based on the end cost of Vyrologix priced similarly to Remdesivir - plus supply chain costs/profit.
NP said some numbers today that were greater than I modeled before, but let's say that there are 1.6M doses available for sale by Jan/Feb. We'll draw the line with that number.
I can't find my numbers but it was about $750/dose (with COG and royalty payments already accounted for, a 40% profit margin) that CytoDyn would clear. If there is approx enough dosing for 400K patients (4 doses per patient = two dosings...or about 1.6M doses), that would only come out to about $450M in the bank. With a P/E of 100 I think that would project out to an $80/share. Crazy, huh?
---late add---
P/E of 40 would be about $32/share
---end add---
The HIV deal with Verya might be even less since I remember it to be a 50/50 split on net.
I ran some numbers earlier in the year and came up with what I thought an accurate CytoDyn "take home" net that was based on the end cost of Vyrologix priced similarly to Remdesivir - plus supply chain costs/profit.
NP said some numbers today that were greater than I modeled before, but let's say that there are 1.6M doses available for sale by Jan/Feb. We'll draw the line with that number.
I can't find my numbers but it was about $750/dose (with COG and royalty payments already accounted for, a 40% profit margin) that CytoDyn would clear. If there is approx enough dosing for 400K patients (4 doses per patient = two dosings...or about 1.6M doses), that would only come out to about $450M in the bank. With a P/E of 100 I think that would project out to an $80/share. Crazy, huh?
---late add---
P/E of 40 would be about $32/share
---end add---
The HIV deal with Verya might be even less since I remember it to be a 50/50 split on net.
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