If I can throw in my two Cents. The scientist be
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The scientist believe the virus also mutated from the time in Wuhan to when it showed up in Italy. The version in Italy was a lot more virulent meaning it spread easier. It is also why the first wave on the west coast was not as bad as the first wave on the east coast. The west coast had the Wuhan version the east coast the Italy version. And because it is more virulent it has totally replaced the Wuhan version all over the world.
So comparing the early virus to now, especially for contagion, is very tough.