It is of course possible for a statistical freak o
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Posted On: 11/20/2020 2:43:40 PM
It is of course possible for a statistical freak out on any kind of human trial.
But both Moderna and Biontech (Pfizer's partner) have something like 40,000 patients in their trial. So not likely to have a stitistical freak out in either of those.
I don't know if that initial efficacy look was at all 40,000, but the 20:1 difference in rate of covid infection is persuasive nonetheless.
Of course what will happen next will render the human trial irrelevant.
Probably several, if not many, hospital complexes will wake up one morning soon and vaccinate every hospital employee as they walk in the front door for their shift at work.
Maybe not all the employees will go for it, but at 95% efficacy they don't need every last person vaccinated.
The peak antibody immune titres occur around 42 days out from the first vaccine dose, I think thats consistent between all of Moderna, Biontech, and AstraZeneca.
So it stands to reason that at day 60 from that day when the hospital woke up and vaccinated everyone walking in the front door, there will be a dispositive result.
Quite frankly, i expect that the 95% rate exceeded even the wildest dreams of the vaccine engineers. They were hoping for 50%.
If 95% is in the ballpark, and if the hospital manages to vaccinate pretty much all their employees on that first day, then at day 60 the rate at which new cases arise among hospital employees should drop by at least one order of magnitude and perhaps two orders of magnitude.
So the results that Superjoo seeks, the results on the most highly exposed populations, should be available by the end of February.
But both Moderna and Biontech (Pfizer's partner) have something like 40,000 patients in their trial. So not likely to have a stitistical freak out in either of those.
I don't know if that initial efficacy look was at all 40,000, but the 20:1 difference in rate of covid infection is persuasive nonetheless.
Of course what will happen next will render the human trial irrelevant.
Probably several, if not many, hospital complexes will wake up one morning soon and vaccinate every hospital employee as they walk in the front door for their shift at work.
Maybe not all the employees will go for it, but at 95% efficacy they don't need every last person vaccinated.
The peak antibody immune titres occur around 42 days out from the first vaccine dose, I think thats consistent between all of Moderna, Biontech, and AstraZeneca.
So it stands to reason that at day 60 from that day when the hospital woke up and vaccinated everyone walking in the front door, there will be a dispositive result.
Quite frankly, i expect that the 95% rate exceeded even the wildest dreams of the vaccine engineers. They were hoping for 50%.
If 95% is in the ballpark, and if the hospital manages to vaccinate pretty much all their employees on that first day, then at day 60 the rate at which new cases arise among hospital employees should drop by at least one order of magnitude and perhaps two orders of magnitude.
So the results that Superjoo seeks, the results on the most highly exposed populations, should be available by the end of February.
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