Very true rjs. However shells were not as big of a
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Posted On: 11/20/2020 12:42:40 PM
Very true rjs. However shells were not as big of a thing last year as they are this year. I did make the assumption that Joe called it off because he saw more value in taking NGIO public directly. Then covid hit. So who knows what would have happened. Though as my response to skipper just now, a bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush. If you have a deal that could work, you have to think long and hard on not taking that deal.
That is like my comment the other day. If a big pharma came and offered GNBT $5B for NGIO, should they take it? I'd say he'd have a hard decision. Yes, NGIO looks like it could dwarf that sometime in the future IF the vaccines work and IF we can get them used all around the world. Look how long our excellent breast cancer trial data has been sitting. Yes we just got 10 year survival data which was awesome. However, give GNBT $5B NOW and what could they do with that to get revenue going in all aspects of the rest of their business. Instead, if we wait for vaccines to get trials, get approved, get distributed, we could be talking at least another year. Then it will be royalties as they are paid (provided we don't get jilted again and they don't pay us and we have to sue for it. I know, I am drawing straws here, but our history has shown we either get sued or have to sue on every deal the last few years.). So if we had an offer of $5B for NGIO, all of our NGIO shares would get bought for $12.5/share (nice) and then GNBT would get about $42/share value added to GNBT shares. I'd be very happy with that bird in my hand.
That is like my comment the other day. If a big pharma came and offered GNBT $5B for NGIO, should they take it? I'd say he'd have a hard decision. Yes, NGIO looks like it could dwarf that sometime in the future IF the vaccines work and IF we can get them used all around the world. Look how long our excellent breast cancer trial data has been sitting. Yes we just got 10 year survival data which was awesome. However, give GNBT $5B NOW and what could they do with that to get revenue going in all aspects of the rest of their business. Instead, if we wait for vaccines to get trials, get approved, get distributed, we could be talking at least another year. Then it will be royalties as they are paid (provided we don't get jilted again and they don't pay us and we have to sue for it. I know, I am drawing straws here, but our history has shown we either get sued or have to sue on every deal the last few years.). So if we had an offer of $5B for NGIO, all of our NGIO shares would get bought for $12.5/share (nice) and then GNBT would get about $42/share value added to GNBT shares. I'd be very happy with that bird in my hand.
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Disclaimer: Of course, all of this is my opinion and you should not make any investment decisions based on my opinion. I have not received any non-public information.