So it's interesting that the last of these convers
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Posted On: 11/18/2020 2:28:54 PM
So it's interesting that the last of these conversions was on 10/13, because the 8-K for the signing of the deal with BK was filed on 10/9 (signed on 10/5).
If we assume there was a bit of a lag on the payment of the $2.65MM, Joe might have needed to convert the last 1-2 tranches in October to pay the bills until the check cleared.
Based on the 10k, I did a rough calculation on the shares converted in Q4 (May - July) and Q1 (Aug - Oct 13 (last one listed)) and their estimated value:
- Q4 - 5.72MM shares - est. avg SP = $0.60. @ 8% discount, that would have raised about $3.16MM
- Q1 - 5.71MM shares - est. avg. SP = $0.30. @ 8% discount, that would have raised about $1.575MM.
So that's an estimate of around $4.75MM that Joe raised in those 2 quarters. Now, we know that there were some court losses/fees, etc. over that time frame. But if we keep it simple, let's assume the next 6 months (starting in mid- October, at the last conversion) would require a similar amount of cash to "keep the lights on".
If Joe has the $2.65MM from the BK deal and the $5MM from the first part of the framework deal with the Chinese consortium, that's $7.65MM. That is well over the amount Joe raised thru 6 months of conversions. With a conservative/negative case of no further deals, up front payments, or revs, that still enables Joe to limp into spring (or even early summer) without converting more shares.
My point is this: Maybe, assuming the $5MM from China Deal 2.0 hits the bank in the next month or so, that is the end of the conversion selling.
Yes, I must admit I feel a little misled that we may have been "chasing ghosts" for the last month or so, when at least part of our troubles have been due to the conversions. But frankly I don't think Joe really had any better options. At the end of the day, the lights are still on, Joe has still been dragging this beast forward, and MUCH progress has been made in the past couple of months.
If my guesstimates are correct, the harm is done, Joe now has what he needs, and the SP should start to recover in the near term. That may not be today, as there still may be some shares left to be dumped.
But, honestly, I feel better knowing the cause (or at least part of it) of the issue, and I will continue the buying I've been doing. The fact is, I now have a greater ownership of the company than ever, despite the dilution. And a full 40% of my shares are above water @ the current $0.225 level. I hope some of you are starting to see some daylight as well!
If we assume there was a bit of a lag on the payment of the $2.65MM, Joe might have needed to convert the last 1-2 tranches in October to pay the bills until the check cleared.
Based on the 10k, I did a rough calculation on the shares converted in Q4 (May - July) and Q1 (Aug - Oct 13 (last one listed)) and their estimated value:
- Q4 - 5.72MM shares - est. avg SP = $0.60. @ 8% discount, that would have raised about $3.16MM
- Q1 - 5.71MM shares - est. avg. SP = $0.30. @ 8% discount, that would have raised about $1.575MM.
So that's an estimate of around $4.75MM that Joe raised in those 2 quarters. Now, we know that there were some court losses/fees, etc. over that time frame. But if we keep it simple, let's assume the next 6 months (starting in mid- October, at the last conversion) would require a similar amount of cash to "keep the lights on".
If Joe has the $2.65MM from the BK deal and the $5MM from the first part of the framework deal with the Chinese consortium, that's $7.65MM. That is well over the amount Joe raised thru 6 months of conversions. With a conservative/negative case of no further deals, up front payments, or revs, that still enables Joe to limp into spring (or even early summer) without converting more shares.
My point is this: Maybe, assuming the $5MM from China Deal 2.0 hits the bank in the next month or so, that is the end of the conversion selling.
Yes, I must admit I feel a little misled that we may have been "chasing ghosts" for the last month or so, when at least part of our troubles have been due to the conversions. But frankly I don't think Joe really had any better options. At the end of the day, the lights are still on, Joe has still been dragging this beast forward, and MUCH progress has been made in the past couple of months.
If my guesstimates are correct, the harm is done, Joe now has what he needs, and the SP should start to recover in the near term. That may not be today, as there still may be some shares left to be dumped.
But, honestly, I feel better knowing the cause (or at least part of it) of the issue, and I will continue the buying I've been doing. The fact is, I now have a greater ownership of the company than ever, despite the dilution. And a full 40% of my shares are above water @ the current $0.225 level. I hope some of you are starting to see some daylight as well!
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