Brad Parscale's big data 'Death Star' : 10 million more Trump voters
Last edited Sun Nov 15, 2020, 07:51 AM - Edit history (2)
Here is what we know about the 2020 election,
given the votes counted so far.
101 million voted early
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
51+ million voted on 11/3
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Projected turnout (66.7%) is the highest since 1900
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/...r-turnout/
At 73.1m (so far), Trump got 10.1 million more votes than 2016
At 78.7m (so far), Biden got 12.8 million more votes than HRC
We don’t know much more that because the ‘exit polls’ had to guess about the 101m early voters.
The ‘exit polls’ primary data set, Election Day voters, was top-heavy with Trumpers.
Both campaigns turned out the vote. The Biden campaign went for the widest possible coalition. The Trump campaign doubled and tripled down on appealing to its base. (Non-college whites & deplorables)
There’s been a lot of discussion about possible Clinton to Trump voters (Latinos, Black men, White women) What this ignores is that turnout 'trumped' everything else.
The Trump strategy was to mine big data for Low Propensity Voters. The campaign went full fascist, seeking out whites and deplorables, right down to the individual level on social media, mainly Facebook.
(I include in deplorables men attracted to the narrative that Trump faced death and won, while Biden hid in a basement and any who mistook Joe Biden for Fidel Castro.)
Trump's turnout was assisted by door knocking follow-ups of identified targets. They had a profile of the household before ringing the bell.
What is the lesson in all this? Trump’s campaign showed data mining can pay off big time. Democrats could do worse than more investment in data analytics and digital outreach, keeping the base in the loop.
Messaging on Republican obstructionism should be timely and uncompromising. Red meat for blue voters. The campaign for 2022 starts now.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214556765
24. I always come back to the 40% who voted for Hoover in 1932.
American politics is tribal. The Lincoln Project set itself up for the most difficult task of all - stipping away genuine Republican's from a party that betrayed everything it supposedly stood for. Watching their shows, the Lincoln Project gives these refugees, a sense of identity, of community. Leaving the safety of a tribal mindset is very challenging. So far, as I see it, the Lincoln Project has provided a safe harbor for reasonable, decent people. More power to them.
Last edited Sun Nov 15, 2020, 07:51 AM - Edit history (2)
Here is what we know about the 2020 election,
given the votes counted so far.
101 million voted early
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
51+ million voted on 11/3
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Projected turnout (66.7%) is the highest since 1900
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/...r-turnout/
At 73.1m (so far), Trump got 10.1 million more votes than 2016
At 78.7m (so far), Biden got 12.8 million more votes than HRC
We don’t know much more that because the ‘exit polls’ had to guess about the 101m early voters.
The ‘exit polls’ primary data set, Election Day voters, was top-heavy with Trumpers.
Both campaigns turned out the vote. The Biden campaign went for the widest possible coalition. The Trump campaign doubled and tripled down on appealing to its base. (Non-college whites & deplorables)
There’s been a lot of discussion about possible Clinton to Trump voters (Latinos, Black men, White women) What this ignores is that turnout 'trumped' everything else.
The Trump strategy was to mine big data for Low Propensity Voters. The campaign went full fascist, seeking out whites and deplorables, right down to the individual level on social media, mainly Facebook.
(I include in deplorables men attracted to the narrative that Trump faced death and won, while Biden hid in a basement and any who mistook Joe Biden for Fidel Castro.)
Trump's turnout was assisted by door knocking follow-ups of identified targets. They had a profile of the household before ringing the bell.
What is the lesson in all this? Trump’s campaign showed data mining can pay off big time. Democrats could do worse than more investment in data analytics and digital outreach, keeping the base in the loop.
Messaging on Republican obstructionism should be timely and uncompromising. Red meat for blue voters. The campaign for 2022 starts now.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214556765
24. I always come back to the 40% who voted for Hoover in 1932.
American politics is tribal. The Lincoln Project set itself up for the most difficult task of all - stipping away genuine Republican's from a party that betrayed everything it supposedly stood for. Watching their shows, the Lincoln Project gives these refugees, a sense of identity, of community. Leaving the safety of a tribal mindset is very challenging. So far, as I see it, the Lincoln Project has provided a safe harbor for reasonable, decent people. More power to them.
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