Manipulation? Maybe not? The below post, in a nutshell, elaborates on my thought that there is NO manipulation, just retail traders doing their thing. That’s your “unknown enemy” that behaves so irrationally that you can’t possibly assign the least bit of logic to it which actually explains things perfectly.
Read further for my rationale:
-manipulators end goal is financial gain, who are the possibilities? Big pharma, financiers, traders
Big pharma: Takeover CYDY; Negotiate better partnership terms; Avoid revenue losses on existing/upcoming pipelines
Financiers: Better terms for next financing round; Lower conversion price on previous round
Traders: short term profits
Weapons available: Shorting the stock into oblivion. Selling existing shares accumulated in the past.
Risk: Stock rips in their face as the pockets of the collective investment community eventually overpowers theirs given possible high visibility and government (OWS) support. Life and death here, if we literally save lives, we won’t fly under the radar, the worlds eyes will be on us. Eventually the manipulator will need to dial it in.
Breaking it down further against manipulation:
Big pharma - NP won’t be doing anything until S/c is done or long haulers is done or HIV PDUFA outcome is known. Assuming any of those succeed, he won’t be selling the firm AND his negotiating position is worlds better regardless of stock price AND the jig is over for Big pharma losing revs, because they will. So if big pharma manipulation is basically futile, then who?
Financiers - let’s assume you need to be at least 1/3 of the volume to hold a stock down. This has been going on for weeks if not months. The amount of $$ to risk to do that likely exceeds any potential gain from a next round of financing at these prices. The potential for the stock to go vertical overnight on an EUA or OWS or approval announcement is high. I put low probability that Iliad or Paulson are keeping this down. They will do just fine if the stock rips, no need to potentially shoot their own foot.
Traders - we already saw this at $10. It worked. They made $$. But that was low hanging fruit. The fruit is not low hanging at $3 or $2. It just isn’t.
Yet despite the above, the stock keeps falling. What gives?
I’ll posit the following - 43,000 retail traders is what gives. They are the weakest hands out there. They whip this around, panic and hope and fear and greed and fast money and Robinhood and etc. They have thin pockets, 5,000 shares, 20,000 shares whatever it is per person. It adds up quickly when multiplied by 43,000. Cash strapped, trigger happy, unemployed possibly, whittling retirement accounts... they can make charts look crazy in both directions.
There are virtually no institutional holders here. It’s an OTC stock with just hopes and dreams right now. Institutional big money would much rather buy certainty than uncertainty. Hence the mystery billionaire saying they would personally step in ASSUMING APPROVAL. A billionaire can easily get involved at $10 or $15 per share with low risk than $2 per share with high risk (in their minds, not mine...).
So I take the no manipulation standpoint at this time as I just don’t see a successful endgame for any of the players given what we know about NP and the probability of the success of LL and the high visibility of Covid across the entire planet. I think it’s all retail.
You know what that does? It comforts the heck out of me as I wrap up my Lagavulin. Once smart $$ is locked in, the trend will permanently reverse.
Happy to have well thought out holes poked into the above.
Read further for my rationale:
-manipulators end goal is financial gain, who are the possibilities? Big pharma, financiers, traders
Big pharma: Takeover CYDY; Negotiate better partnership terms; Avoid revenue losses on existing/upcoming pipelines
Financiers: Better terms for next financing round; Lower conversion price on previous round
Traders: short term profits
Weapons available: Shorting the stock into oblivion. Selling existing shares accumulated in the past.
Risk: Stock rips in their face as the pockets of the collective investment community eventually overpowers theirs given possible high visibility and government (OWS) support. Life and death here, if we literally save lives, we won’t fly under the radar, the worlds eyes will be on us. Eventually the manipulator will need to dial it in.
Breaking it down further against manipulation:
Big pharma - NP won’t be doing anything until S/c is done or long haulers is done or HIV PDUFA outcome is known. Assuming any of those succeed, he won’t be selling the firm AND his negotiating position is worlds better regardless of stock price AND the jig is over for Big pharma losing revs, because they will. So if big pharma manipulation is basically futile, then who?
Financiers - let’s assume you need to be at least 1/3 of the volume to hold a stock down. This has been going on for weeks if not months. The amount of $$ to risk to do that likely exceeds any potential gain from a next round of financing at these prices. The potential for the stock to go vertical overnight on an EUA or OWS or approval announcement is high. I put low probability that Iliad or Paulson are keeping this down. They will do just fine if the stock rips, no need to potentially shoot their own foot.
Traders - we already saw this at $10. It worked. They made $$. But that was low hanging fruit. The fruit is not low hanging at $3 or $2. It just isn’t.
Yet despite the above, the stock keeps falling. What gives?
I’ll posit the following - 43,000 retail traders is what gives. They are the weakest hands out there. They whip this around, panic and hope and fear and greed and fast money and Robinhood and etc. They have thin pockets, 5,000 shares, 20,000 shares whatever it is per person. It adds up quickly when multiplied by 43,000. Cash strapped, trigger happy, unemployed possibly, whittling retirement accounts... they can make charts look crazy in both directions.
There are virtually no institutional holders here. It’s an OTC stock with just hopes and dreams right now. Institutional big money would much rather buy certainty than uncertainty. Hence the mystery billionaire saying they would personally step in ASSUMING APPROVAL. A billionaire can easily get involved at $10 or $15 per share with low risk than $2 per share with high risk (in their minds, not mine...).
So I take the no manipulation standpoint at this time as I just don’t see a successful endgame for any of the players given what we know about NP and the probability of the success of LL and the high visibility of Covid across the entire planet. I think it’s all retail.
You know what that does? It comforts the heck out of me as I wrap up my Lagavulin. Once smart $$ is locked in, the trend will permanently reverse.
Happy to have well thought out holes poked into the above.
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