Primary Model Predicts Trump Re-election Helmut
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Posted On: 11/03/2020 11:54:54 AM
Primary Model Predicts Trump Re-election
http://primarymodel.com/2020-1
Quote:
Helmut Norpoth
Stony Brook University
Quote:(primarymodel.com/). Trump is predicted to get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.[1] To be sure, the forecast of a near-certain Trump victory strains credulity. Polls have shown Trump trailing Biden in the ReaClearPolitics average every day of this election year thus far. This, of course, feels eerily familiar. In 2016, polls and poll-aggregation forecasts projected a sheer-insurmountable lead for Hillary Clinton: Trump simply had no path to the presidency. In contrast, the Primary Model gave Trump an 87%-chance of winning although that was based on a popular-vote forecast that turned out to be wrong (Norpoth 2016).
The Primary Model gives President Donald Trump a 91%-chance of winning re-election in a matchup against Democrat Joe Biden
http://primarymodel.com/2020-1
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