No need to watch the returns Tuesday, this is how it'll go down.
Hello.
For you old timers out there, you'll remember my calling the election mere days before the results (2008 and 2012). I did not do 2016 because I honestly didn't know what to make of the election and I didn't want to taint my 2-0 record.
But I'm gonna go all out on this and risk that undefeated record by giving you election night returns.
If you'd like, you can view my past election prediction posts here:
2008 https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss...id=7713304
2012 https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=vi...pid=215545
No jinx - no bravado. Just fun.
And off we go...
7:00 Eastern:
Polls close in the following states:
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Virginia
Vermont
Of course, the big prize of this hour will be Georgia and there will be A LOT of talk about Georgia - what the turnout is, a mix of phone and polling location exit polls and how vital this state will be to President Trump's reelection. We will not get a call, obviously, as the networks will claim it's too close to call.
Indiana and South Carolina will be categorized as 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.
Kentucky will be called for Trump and Vermont for Biden.
Virginia will be categorized as 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
At 7:03, Trump has 8 electoral votes to Biden's 3.
Around 7:30, Indiana is called for Trump.
That gives Trump 19 electoral votes to Biden's 3.
At 7:30 Eastern, polls close in the following states:
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
Trump is declared the winner in West Virginia.
North Carolina and Ohio will be classified as 'too close to call'.
Trump has 24 electoral votes to Biden's 3.
As we close in on 8:00, South Carolina is called for Trump - giving him 33 electoral votes to Biden's 3. Of course, it looks and feels like a lopsided Trump win, exactly as it did for Romney in '12. but...
8:00 Eastern:
Polls close in the following states:
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington, D.C.
Trump is declared the winner in:
Alabama
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Biden is declared the winner in:
Connecticut
Delaware (HIS HOME STATE!)
Illinois
Maine (3 of 4 EV)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Washington, D.C.
Florida, which has now been counting ballots for an hour (most the state closes at 7 but networks won't make any level of a projection until 8:00 when the panhandle closes at 8:00), is too close to call - as is Pennsylvania.
New Hampshire is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
Missouri is 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.
Biden has now taken the lead in the Electoral College: 78 to 66.
About an hour and a half after polls have closed, Virginia is called for Biden around 8:30 pm. That gives him 91 electoral votes.
The states that are either too early or too close to call at this hour:
Georgia
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Missouri
Florida
New Hampshire
As well as the 2nd Congressional District in Maine.
8:30 Eastern:
Arkansas closes and Trump is declared the winner.
Biden has 91 Electoral Votes to Trump's 72.
Right before 9:00, Missouri is called for Trump.
That gives him 82 Electoral Votes.
9:00 Eastern Time:
Polls have closed in the following states:
Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Trump is declared the winner in:
Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska (4 of 5 EV)
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming
Biden is declared the winner in:
New York
Minnesota, New Mexico and Colorado are 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
Arizona is too close to call.
Michigan is too close to call, but a good amount of the state will have already started as a chunk of the state's polls closed an hour prior (similar to Florida).
Wisconsin is too close to call.
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
So, shortly after the 9:00 hour, Biden has 120 Electoral Votes and Trump has 109 - with 203 not yet called.
At this point, the election is going to start taking shape. Florida should mostly be in, I'd say around 80-90% counted, and there's going to be a narrative at play here - and we'll also see it in North Carolina and Georgia. It's at this hour that it becomes apparent Biden is winning where he needs to in Georgia and North Carolina but it's still too close to call in either state.
Biden is also strong in Ohio, though any lead he may have, built on the back of mail-in ballots, is iffy at best.
Steve Kornacki on MSNBC says, "I would much rather be in the Delaware camp right now than those sitting in the White House."
Trump tweets I AM WINNING BIG IN PENNSYLVANIA
He is not, in fact, winning big in Pennsylvania. In fact, in a twist, with Philadelphia and its suburbs, along with Alleghany County, reporting mail-in ballots at a faster than expected clip, Biden is actually staving off a red wave there.
But there's still uncertainty.
By 9:30 Eastern Time, Colorado is called for Biden. Shortly after, so is New Hampshire.
"Top Republicans admit that Donald Trump is not performing at the rate he needs to win 270 electoral votes, despite the President's claiming otherwise."
The betting markets have Biden a 90% chance of winning the presidency based on outstanding state totals.
10:00 Eastern:
Polls close in the following states:
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah
Iowa is 'too close to call'.
Montana and Utah are 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.
Nevada is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
There are 211 Electoral Votes still not called (and that isn't even counting the 85 that are still being decided in states where polls haven't closed).
Biden leads 133 to Trump's 109.
Trump tweets: I WILL WIN!
Shortly after 10:00 Eastern Time, Biden is declared the winner in Minnesota and New Mexico. He's now at 148 Electoral Votes.
Right before poll close on the west coast, Trump is declared the winner in Utah.
11:00 Eastern:
Polls have closed in the following states:
California
Idaho
Oregon
Washington
Trump is declared the winner in Idaho.
Biden is declared the winner in:
California
Oregon
Washington
Biden is now at 222 Electoral Votes. Trump 119.
At 11:30 Eastern, we have a big call to make. North Carolina has gone for Joe Biden. Biden is also declared the winner in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Netting him one vote.
Biden now has 238 Electoral Votes.
"The feeling in Delaware is very positive - they think they have the votes to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania," MSNBC announces.
"The Trump Team has gone quiet, refusing to grant any interviews to the media," FOX reports.
At 11:45, Montana is called for Trump.
Nevada then breaks for Biden.
Biden now has 244 Electoral Votes to Trump's 122.
12:00 Eastern
Polls have closed in Hawaii. Biden is declared the winner.
BREAKING: MICHIGAN HAS BEEN CALLED FOR JOE BIDEN.
Joe Biden is now six Electoral Votes away from the presidency - leading Trump 264 to 122.
12:10 Eastern Time:
WE HAVE A MAJOR PROJECTION TO MAKE:
Joe Biden has won the state of Wisconsin. With their 10 Electoral Votes, Joe Biden has surpassed the 270 needed to be projected the President-Elect of the United States.
Trump tweets: FAKE NEWS! NOT ALL THE VOTES HAVE BEEN COUNTED! HOW CAN THE MEDIA DECLARE BIDEN THE WINNER WHEN THERE ARE STILL VOTES LEFT TO BE COUNTED? FRAUD!
"Republicans are urging President Trump to concede to Joe Biden," reports ABC News. However, "the President is not expected to concede the results."
"Speaking with a Trump campaign official, they claim they will fight for the integrity of the election process and make sure every valid vote is counted and those invalid votes are tossed - this election is not over."
BIDEN TO SPEAK TO THE NATION AS TRUMP REFUSES TO CONCEDE
TRUMP, IN FRENZIED WHITE HOUSE SPEECH, CLAIMS BIDEN'S VICTORY MAY BE RESULT OF FRAUD, WILL INVESTIGATE IN COMING DAYS
At 12:45 Eastern, Biden is declared the winner in Georgia, giving him 290 Electoral Votes.
And that is where we'll leave it - with 123 Electoral Votes up for grabs.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Trump barely leads in Ohio and Iowa, while Texas and Florida are too close to call.
It won't matter - Biden is the victor.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214411536
Hello.
For you old timers out there, you'll remember my calling the election mere days before the results (2008 and 2012). I did not do 2016 because I honestly didn't know what to make of the election and I didn't want to taint my 2-0 record.
But I'm gonna go all out on this and risk that undefeated record by giving you election night returns.
If you'd like, you can view my past election prediction posts here:
2008 https://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss...id=7713304
2012 https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=vi...pid=215545
No jinx - no bravado. Just fun.
And off we go...
7:00 Eastern:
Polls close in the following states:
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
South Carolina
Virginia
Vermont
Of course, the big prize of this hour will be Georgia and there will be A LOT of talk about Georgia - what the turnout is, a mix of phone and polling location exit polls and how vital this state will be to President Trump's reelection. We will not get a call, obviously, as the networks will claim it's too close to call.
Indiana and South Carolina will be categorized as 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.
Kentucky will be called for Trump and Vermont for Biden.
Virginia will be categorized as 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
At 7:03, Trump has 8 electoral votes to Biden's 3.
Around 7:30, Indiana is called for Trump.
That gives Trump 19 electoral votes to Biden's 3.
At 7:30 Eastern, polls close in the following states:
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia
Trump is declared the winner in West Virginia.
North Carolina and Ohio will be classified as 'too close to call'.
Trump has 24 electoral votes to Biden's 3.
As we close in on 8:00, South Carolina is called for Trump - giving him 33 electoral votes to Biden's 3. Of course, it looks and feels like a lopsided Trump win, exactly as it did for Romney in '12. but...
8:00 Eastern:
Polls close in the following states:
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington, D.C.
Trump is declared the winner in:
Alabama
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Biden is declared the winner in:
Connecticut
Delaware (HIS HOME STATE!)
Illinois
Maine (3 of 4 EV)
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Washington, D.C.
Florida, which has now been counting ballots for an hour (most the state closes at 7 but networks won't make any level of a projection until 8:00 when the panhandle closes at 8:00), is too close to call - as is Pennsylvania.
New Hampshire is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
Missouri is 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.
Biden has now taken the lead in the Electoral College: 78 to 66.
About an hour and a half after polls have closed, Virginia is called for Biden around 8:30 pm. That gives him 91 electoral votes.
The states that are either too early or too close to call at this hour:
Georgia
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Missouri
Florida
New Hampshire
As well as the 2nd Congressional District in Maine.
8:30 Eastern:
Arkansas closes and Trump is declared the winner.
Biden has 91 Electoral Votes to Trump's 72.
Right before 9:00, Missouri is called for Trump.
That gives him 82 Electoral Votes.
9:00 Eastern Time:
Polls have closed in the following states:
Arizona
Colorado
Kansas
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Trump is declared the winner in:
Kansas
Louisiana
Nebraska (4 of 5 EV)
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming
Biden is declared the winner in:
New York
Minnesota, New Mexico and Colorado are 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
Arizona is too close to call.
Michigan is too close to call, but a good amount of the state will have already started as a chunk of the state's polls closed an hour prior (similar to Florida).
Wisconsin is too close to call.
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
So, shortly after the 9:00 hour, Biden has 120 Electoral Votes and Trump has 109 - with 203 not yet called.
At this point, the election is going to start taking shape. Florida should mostly be in, I'd say around 80-90% counted, and there's going to be a narrative at play here - and we'll also see it in North Carolina and Georgia. It's at this hour that it becomes apparent Biden is winning where he needs to in Georgia and North Carolina but it's still too close to call in either state.
Biden is also strong in Ohio, though any lead he may have, built on the back of mail-in ballots, is iffy at best.
Steve Kornacki on MSNBC says, "I would much rather be in the Delaware camp right now than those sitting in the White House."
Trump tweets I AM WINNING BIG IN PENNSYLVANIA
He is not, in fact, winning big in Pennsylvania. In fact, in a twist, with Philadelphia and its suburbs, along with Alleghany County, reporting mail-in ballots at a faster than expected clip, Biden is actually staving off a red wave there.
But there's still uncertainty.
By 9:30 Eastern Time, Colorado is called for Biden. Shortly after, so is New Hampshire.
"Top Republicans admit that Donald Trump is not performing at the rate he needs to win 270 electoral votes, despite the President's claiming otherwise."
The betting markets have Biden a 90% chance of winning the presidency based on outstanding state totals.
10:00 Eastern:
Polls close in the following states:
Iowa
Montana
Nevada
Utah
Iowa is 'too close to call'.
Montana and Utah are 'too early to call' but with a Trump lead.
Nevada is 'too early to call' but with a Biden lead.
There are 211 Electoral Votes still not called (and that isn't even counting the 85 that are still being decided in states where polls haven't closed).
Biden leads 133 to Trump's 109.
Trump tweets: I WILL WIN!
Shortly after 10:00 Eastern Time, Biden is declared the winner in Minnesota and New Mexico. He's now at 148 Electoral Votes.
Right before poll close on the west coast, Trump is declared the winner in Utah.
11:00 Eastern:
Polls have closed in the following states:
California
Idaho
Oregon
Washington
Trump is declared the winner in Idaho.
Biden is declared the winner in:
California
Oregon
Washington
Biden is now at 222 Electoral Votes. Trump 119.
At 11:30 Eastern, we have a big call to make. North Carolina has gone for Joe Biden. Biden is also declared the winner in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Netting him one vote.
Biden now has 238 Electoral Votes.
"The feeling in Delaware is very positive - they think they have the votes to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania," MSNBC announces.
"The Trump Team has gone quiet, refusing to grant any interviews to the media," FOX reports.
At 11:45, Montana is called for Trump.
Nevada then breaks for Biden.
Biden now has 244 Electoral Votes to Trump's 122.
12:00 Eastern
Polls have closed in Hawaii. Biden is declared the winner.
BREAKING: MICHIGAN HAS BEEN CALLED FOR JOE BIDEN.
Joe Biden is now six Electoral Votes away from the presidency - leading Trump 264 to 122.
12:10 Eastern Time:
WE HAVE A MAJOR PROJECTION TO MAKE:
Joe Biden has won the state of Wisconsin. With their 10 Electoral Votes, Joe Biden has surpassed the 270 needed to be projected the President-Elect of the United States.
Trump tweets: FAKE NEWS! NOT ALL THE VOTES HAVE BEEN COUNTED! HOW CAN THE MEDIA DECLARE BIDEN THE WINNER WHEN THERE ARE STILL VOTES LEFT TO BE COUNTED? FRAUD!
"Republicans are urging President Trump to concede to Joe Biden," reports ABC News. However, "the President is not expected to concede the results."
"Speaking with a Trump campaign official, they claim they will fight for the integrity of the election process and make sure every valid vote is counted and those invalid votes are tossed - this election is not over."
BIDEN TO SPEAK TO THE NATION AS TRUMP REFUSES TO CONCEDE
TRUMP, IN FRENZIED WHITE HOUSE SPEECH, CLAIMS BIDEN'S VICTORY MAY BE RESULT OF FRAUD, WILL INVESTIGATE IN COMING DAYS
At 12:45 Eastern, Biden is declared the winner in Georgia, giving him 290 Electoral Votes.
And that is where we'll leave it - with 123 Electoral Votes up for grabs.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Trump barely leads in Ohio and Iowa, while Texas and Florida are too close to call.
It won't matter - Biden is the victor.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214411536
