This is a great assessment, I have been reading through everyone’s theories about what the s/c trial path could be. I am leaning toward the feeling that the 390 patient # is already small that a 50% or 75% stop is unlikely. As much as we all hate Remdesivir, their trials were in the 1000’s. My guess is the 75% readout and the 42 day mortality is to get as much data as possible out of the trial. If at 42 days the separation between recovery and worsening grows greater, the 2 dose might be more compelling. If the difference does not grow, more subsequent doses likely needed. They are likely wanting info on direction for doctors to know how many doses are needed and when more are needed depending on the patient’s recovery. Also, to give some idea if leronlimab might not work at first in some patients and then start working. I don’t think treating the range of severity in patients of very different health levels is as simple as it seems.
I completely do not think it is smart to release the data early, no matter how good it is. We have this one chance to get this right. If the data is released and as we have seen before the fda shrugs their shoulders and says so what, we are at zero. The only thing that matters is that we follow the rules and produce the most respectable trial possible. There needs to be no question. What really sucks is our inability to enroll. This is not just a covid trial problem, it is a problem for every trial. Cytodyn needs a partner that can solve this. My hope is some BP that has essentially dropped out of the covid treatment/vaccine process because they don’t have a candidate or their candidate has not proven not to work will want to help cytodyn.