Z06MAN - no problem, thanks. It just gets rather o
Post# of 11899
Z06MAN - no problem, thanks. It just gets rather old reading all the internet boards these bashers who just want to convince everyone that the RegSHO daily short volume ratios are irrelevant and only the biweekly short interest matters when actually its the other way around. We all already know that there is really no large accrued short position in RFMK, the biweekly figures do not show a large built-up short position. The biweekly numbers show aggregated short sales, whereas the daily numbers show aggregated daily short sale numbers. All the lemmings on other boards simply figure because the T+3 settlement window is less of a time duration than 2 weeks (for the biweekly short metrics) then it must be the case that the biweekly numbers show all settled and existing short sales while its always the case that because the daily short sale volume numbers are less than the T+3 window it must necessarily be the case that those get covered on the same day and settled because the biweekly numbers do not show a large short sale position existing. However, this is a fallacy and not necessarily true. The fact is, the daily short sales, could indeed be settled in a day or 3 days or even longer but then at some point they could fail to deliver. Additionally the short sales could be left open and not settle for weeks, it has no bearing on the metrics. The crux of the matter is not failures to deliver or the settlement window versus the two week time duration or if any of the trades ever settle or not, or when they settle or not. The crux of the matter is in fact how the trades and transaction are getting MARKED by the MMs manipulating the stock and the daily trading. The fact is that each transaction (trade) is by law required to be MARKED properly, either a "long" or a "short" sale. The simple truth is that the RegSHO daily short sale volume numbers show exactly how many total shares were marked as "short" sales versus how many total shares were traded in a single day. Period. If the shares are getting improperly marked by MMs and brokers then that is a violation. Now, assuming the shares are getting marked properly then it is the case that when they actually possess the shares to sell they can sell into the market and mark the transaction as "long" but if they do not possess the shares to sell, they must mark the transaction with the market as "short". Note: this has nothing to do with LEGGED trades, as in the MM going short the shares his seller wishes to sell but has not delivered yet but still makes a "long" trade for instance with another market participant and then later within T+3 settlement window the shares to be originally sold are properly delivered from the seller to the MM and then the MM can cover his own short trade against the market. The daily numbers are the aggregate sales marked "short" to a CONSOLIDATED TAPE. This means that these are bona-fide transactions which are marked either as "long" or "short" and any internal legged trades between retail clients or MMs with other MMS or MMs with the market are already consolidated, therefore the tape that is shown at the end of the day does not show any of this "volume" because it would confuse the volume picture for the daily trading. There is A LOT OF CONFUSION surrounding the mechanics and there are not multiple ways to interpret how it works. The bashers on other boards would use any device to confuse in order to have you believe that the daily "short" volume means nothing and it just shows MMs shuffling shares around in their usual business of providing liquidity and making a market, but that is completely and entirely FALSE. Whether ANY of the marked transactions are settled or not, settled within a certain T+3 or other time duration, or if there are any failure to delivers later on is completely irrelevant to these very simple metrics that FINRA reports daily. The very simple truth of the matter is that the shares are either marked "short" because the brokerage did not have the shares but they sold IOUs (entitlements) on the bid, or mark the shares "long" if they sell actual real shares to another market participant on the spot. All transactions may settle in a single day or three days or sometimes longer, it has NOTHING to do with the marked shares for the short vs total volume numbers.
Now that everyone understands the truth of these numbers, it is clear that the daily numbers are what is important, which is why for so many years FINRA only reported biweekly, there was a push to get daily numbers reported, because it gives a clearer picture as to what is really going on in the trading every day. The biweekly numbers are a cloudy picture because it is merely an aggregate of the "short" sales which may or may not have been settled but more to the point are still marked as "short" and have not been covered (open short positions). The daily numbers are using the same "short" share counts just on a daily basis. Granted, the daily "short" sales are usually covered on the same day or the next day and rarely kept for longer than that, which is why the biweekly numbers never really show a large short position; again, its TRUE that there has never really been any long term open short positions just sitting in RFMK. So its totally TRUE that they say its ridiculous to think that "shorts will burn", its true, there really are no short positions sitting in RFMK. HOWEVER, the daily numbers show the real truth and even with the fact that those "short" shares covering within the same day or the next day or whenever, it does not matter, the truth is that it shows the capacity for daily MANIPULATION of the price and volume.
I already explained the mechanics of this in a previous post so I dont want to go over it again here. Suffice it to say that any time you see a large percentage (especially over 50%) of the sales marked as "short" versus the total intraday volume, you can know that that day saw much of the trading being manipulated by the MMs who have the ability to go short at any time with a lot more volume that what has been normally traded in RFMK in order to at will manipulate the price and cover lower (either on the same day or the next day), in order to make money off of those panic sellers and buyers who chase. Its that simple.
If anyone cares to read the FINRA notice when the daily numbers first began to be reported, see link
http://www.finra.org/web/groups/industry/@ip/...120044.pdf
GLTA!
$RFMK!