On the NGIO listing topic, I've been mulling over
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Posted On: 10/16/2020 10:22:23 AM
On the NGIO listing topic, I've been mulling over the valuation/# of shares issue that's been troubling me (and others).
I believe we're all under the assumption that $4/sh is the level we need to hit for Naz listing, so that's what I'll use.
Let's say the valuation comes in at $1.1B, and let's put the debate on whether that's possible aside for now. That would equate to $2.75/sh with the 400MM shares outstanding, and not sufficient for listing. I'm not sure what Joe could do to combat the valuation in the short term... either there is a new development that provides additional value, or there's not.
But Joe certainly could attack the other part of the equation: shares issued/outstanding. If he retired enough shares, the SP can rise. So let's say he retired 140MM, that would leave 260MM shares outstanding, and that would yield $4.23 for a SP.
I have never understood why Joe chose 400MM shares, but I'm sure there was a rationale. Not knowing that reason, I can only guess that reducing the number of shares and possibly losing some unknown effect Joe was trying to achieve is less detrimental than not being able to list at this time.
So that comes to our dividend shares. We currently hold about ~9%, so that is roughly 36MM. There is no way for Joe to claw back those shares (that I'm aware of), so if Joe reduces shares outstanding, our share of ownership goes up. 13.8% in this example.
I'm sure there would be a point where Joe would have to say he's just not going to list NGIO. If the valuation comes in at $600MM, he would have to go below 150MM shares to achieve $4/sh. And we would own 24% of the company. I personally doubt he would do that, even though this is a critical item.
But the 260MM shares in my $1.1B valuation example would seem to be a big enough float and a reasonable enough % to cede to us for Joe to proceed.
Thoughts?
I believe we're all under the assumption that $4/sh is the level we need to hit for Naz listing, so that's what I'll use.
Let's say the valuation comes in at $1.1B, and let's put the debate on whether that's possible aside for now. That would equate to $2.75/sh with the 400MM shares outstanding, and not sufficient for listing. I'm not sure what Joe could do to combat the valuation in the short term... either there is a new development that provides additional value, or there's not.
But Joe certainly could attack the other part of the equation: shares issued/outstanding. If he retired enough shares, the SP can rise. So let's say he retired 140MM, that would leave 260MM shares outstanding, and that would yield $4.23 for a SP.
I have never understood why Joe chose 400MM shares, but I'm sure there was a rationale. Not knowing that reason, I can only guess that reducing the number of shares and possibly losing some unknown effect Joe was trying to achieve is less detrimental than not being able to list at this time.
So that comes to our dividend shares. We currently hold about ~9%, so that is roughly 36MM. There is no way for Joe to claw back those shares (that I'm aware of), so if Joe reduces shares outstanding, our share of ownership goes up. 13.8% in this example.
I'm sure there would be a point where Joe would have to say he's just not going to list NGIO. If the valuation comes in at $600MM, he would have to go below 150MM shares to achieve $4/sh. And we would own 24% of the company. I personally doubt he would do that, even though this is a critical item.
But the 260MM shares in my $1.1B valuation example would seem to be a big enough float and a reasonable enough % to cede to us for Joe to proceed.
Thoughts?
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