What’s the problem everyone? My quick bullets
Post# of 154853
(Total Views: 681)
Posted On: 10/16/2020 9:44:28 AM
What’s the problem everyone?
My quick bullets (and thanks to the other poster reminding me lack of margin buying for OTC hence stop losses likely culprit for late day sell off a few days ago, not margin calls):
-LL science still works hence forward progress likely result Tuesday
-Forward progress can be pivot endpoint or keep as is but larger N needed, both require finishing trial
-Hard to envision scenario where Covid indication is NOT approved in some form in next 3-4 months
-Hard to envision scenario where HIV indication is NOT approved in next 6-7 months
-Either approval is in enough time to prevent any significant dilution (as I stated, 5% dilution now to get past goal will be repaid back to us many times over in years to come)
I understand the frustration given the anticipation and expectation of everyone here but none of the probabilities have changed much. Most agreed low chance of interim homerun but high chance of eventual Covid success. That’s exactly where we are. Only negative surprise shocker would be if Tuesday they say stop, drug is harmful or useless, have a nice day. I put 0% probability on that.
We all know the drug works and is safe, just figuring out the path forward is all. Please relax and enjoy the weekend and know that we are still moving forward, adjust your timeframe a bit.
My quick bullets (and thanks to the other poster reminding me lack of margin buying for OTC hence stop losses likely culprit for late day sell off a few days ago, not margin calls):
-LL science still works hence forward progress likely result Tuesday
-Forward progress can be pivot endpoint or keep as is but larger N needed, both require finishing trial
-Hard to envision scenario where Covid indication is NOT approved in some form in next 3-4 months
-Hard to envision scenario where HIV indication is NOT approved in next 6-7 months
-Either approval is in enough time to prevent any significant dilution (as I stated, 5% dilution now to get past goal will be repaid back to us many times over in years to come)
I understand the frustration given the anticipation and expectation of everyone here but none of the probabilities have changed much. Most agreed low chance of interim homerun but high chance of eventual Covid success. That’s exactly where we are. Only negative surprise shocker would be if Tuesday they say stop, drug is harmful or useless, have a nice day. I put 0% probability on that.
We all know the drug works and is safe, just figuring out the path forward is all. Please relax and enjoy the weekend and know that we are still moving forward, adjust your timeframe a bit.
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