I suspect 40% placebo mortality with 35 total deat
Post# of 153773
(Total Views: 628)
Posted On: 10/09/2020 7:05:27 PM
Re: invisioner #60581
I suspect 40% placebo mortality with 35 total deaths is automatic EUA approval, possibly even automatic full approval for covid19 severe/critical.
40% of 65 is 26 deaths in placebo. If only 35 total, that leaves only 9 for leronlimab.
That is an 83.3% reduction in mortality. And my p value is .00000032, although admittedly my pvalue calcs are suspect.
83.3% mortality reduction will achieve EUA nearly instantaneously, in my opinion.
But there are reasons to believe its not as good as that.
For example, with results that good you would expect that Cytodyn would announce that immediately and without delay if for no other reason than to dose the placebo patients in the study with leronlimab.
On the other hand, Cytodyn may be taking extra time to build its case not only with the primary endpoint but with secondary endpoints as well.
Cytodyn may want to close a secondary financing round near immediately upon release of excellent results. It probably takes a few days to get prospective investors lined up before the data release.
Cytodyn may not have drug on hand to immediately ship to hospitals, although my reading of Cytodyn's statements on supply availability is that Cytodyn could treat at least 10,000 patients more or less immediately.
40% of 65 is 26 deaths in placebo. If only 35 total, that leaves only 9 for leronlimab.
That is an 83.3% reduction in mortality. And my p value is .00000032, although admittedly my pvalue calcs are suspect.
83.3% mortality reduction will achieve EUA nearly instantaneously, in my opinion.
But there are reasons to believe its not as good as that.
For example, with results that good you would expect that Cytodyn would announce that immediately and without delay if for no other reason than to dose the placebo patients in the study with leronlimab.
On the other hand, Cytodyn may be taking extra time to build its case not only with the primary endpoint but with secondary endpoints as well.
Cytodyn may want to close a secondary financing round near immediately upon release of excellent results. It probably takes a few days to get prospective investors lined up before the data release.
Cytodyn may not have drug on hand to immediately ship to hospitals, although my reading of Cytodyn's statements on supply availability is that Cytodyn could treat at least 10,000 patients more or less immediately.
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