If this is correct is there any way possible CYD

If this is correct is there any way possible CYDY can obtain statistical significance next week??


Yes.

I believe that 35 or 40 deaths inside the 195 patient interim analysis may increase the chances for statistical significance.

45 deaths out of 195 patients was puzzling because it shows the overall mortality is 23%. That is approximately what was expected in the placebo arm given the mortality rates in the big dexamethasone study.

So, with 45 deaths overall, it begs the puzzling question: If placebo was 23%, then leronlimab must have been 23% as well.

With 45 deaths overall, the only way leronlimab can be less than placebo is if the placebo deaths were higher than what might be expected based on the dexamethasone study.

But with an overall interim analysis death rate of only 18% (35 deaths out of 195 patients), the lowering of the overall death rate is probably caused by lower deaths in leronlimab.

25% deaths in placebo is 16 deaths. If 35 total, that leaves 19 for leronlimab. Almost 50% mortality reduction.

Some of those placebo patients were treated quite some time ago, before dexamethasone and other treatments were widely used.

If placebo goes up to only 30% mortality, that's 19-20 deaths in the placebo arm.

19-20 placebo means 15-16 leronlimab, greater than 50% mortality reduction.

If indeed the deaths in the interim analysis are only 35, that makes the p-value go up.

For example 16 placebo and 19 leronlimab gives 0.1 which is too high.

But at 30% placebo mortality, 19 placebo and 16 LL, the p value is .008.

My p value calculator is not as accurate as the stats experts who post here, so there is that as well.