I suppose you could. But there would be a wide ran
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Posted On: 10/09/2020 11:23:30 AM
I suppose you could. But there would be a wide range based on assumptions of very large unknowns. I’ll take a shot and be quick and conservative...
Inflation adjusted original valuation might be 400MM. And put a multiple on that for 10-year data. Maybe 3x is a reasonable stab? $1.2B or $3/sh for the stagnant cancer biz that isn’t generating revs.
Now take CV and your $2.5B revs #. I’d say there would be a probability factor applied to something like that. I’ll throw out 20% for discussion purposes. That’s 500MM in revs or $1.25/sh.
Growth prospects, could expect a good P/S ratio? I own ZTS... not a perfect proxy by any stretch, but related in some ways. Has a 12.3 P/S. Where Pfizer is a little over 4.
So if we say a lower one than ZTS due to the unknown but more than a behemoth like PFE, maybe 7-8 conservatively? So at a 7.5 P/S, that would be $9.38.
Add back the $3 from above, and you’ve got $12.38, plus some value for other potentials maybe.
But obviously that relies heavily on the CV rev potential for now. If that becomes more likely, the number goes up drastically. If it becomes less likely, a steep dropoff.
Fun exercise to show the potential is there. How much of that would be used in a professional valuation is anyone’s guess... but certainly there’s a pathway for the $4 we need for a listing. And that’s the real key, IMO.
Anyone else?
Inflation adjusted original valuation might be 400MM. And put a multiple on that for 10-year data. Maybe 3x is a reasonable stab? $1.2B or $3/sh for the stagnant cancer biz that isn’t generating revs.
Now take CV and your $2.5B revs #. I’d say there would be a probability factor applied to something like that. I’ll throw out 20% for discussion purposes. That’s 500MM in revs or $1.25/sh.
Growth prospects, could expect a good P/S ratio? I own ZTS... not a perfect proxy by any stretch, but related in some ways. Has a 12.3 P/S. Where Pfizer is a little over 4.
So if we say a lower one than ZTS due to the unknown but more than a behemoth like PFE, maybe 7-8 conservatively? So at a 7.5 P/S, that would be $9.38.
Add back the $3 from above, and you’ve got $12.38, plus some value for other potentials maybe.
But obviously that relies heavily on the CV rev potential for now. If that becomes more likely, the number goes up drastically. If it becomes less likely, a steep dropoff.
Fun exercise to show the potential is there. How much of that would be used in a professional valuation is anyone’s guess... but certainly there’s a pathway for the $4 we need for a listing. And that’s the real key, IMO.
Anyone else?
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