I was suspicious of the population of Indonesia sh
Post# of 36566
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Posted On: 10/07/2020 11:48:58 AM
I was suspicious of the population of Indonesia shown in the PR (69.4MM).
I just had a chance to look it up, and it is 274MM. At first I wondered if that was the Halal population (Muslim) that some of the earlier docs referred to. But that number is far too small vs the total, as Indonesia is considered the world's largest Muslim nation. So maybe it was a typo (sigh) and meant to be 269MM?
Regardless, that is 200MM additional people in the scope of this agreement, and it may help explain the $1B "potential" that is being touted. If you consider 50% of that added 200MM @ $4.50 per dose, that alone is $450MM.
Looking at it in total, this deal encompasses 500MM people instead of the stated 300MM. So if you roughly estimated the average payment was $4.25 ($4.50 for most, $3 for Malaysia), that would imply ~235MM doses. That is 47% of the 500MM, and seems to be reasonable.
Now if we factor in 2 doses per person, that gets cut in half to under 25% of the in-scope population. That definitely seems like it's achievable, and the $1B would be a reasonable "potential".
Again... once we see the pathway cleared by the science of the peptides/blood testing....
I just had a chance to look it up, and it is 274MM. At first I wondered if that was the Halal population (Muslim) that some of the earlier docs referred to. But that number is far too small vs the total, as Indonesia is considered the world's largest Muslim nation. So maybe it was a typo (sigh) and meant to be 269MM?
Regardless, that is 200MM additional people in the scope of this agreement, and it may help explain the $1B "potential" that is being touted. If you consider 50% of that added 200MM @ $4.50 per dose, that alone is $450MM.
Looking at it in total, this deal encompasses 500MM people instead of the stated 300MM. So if you roughly estimated the average payment was $4.25 ($4.50 for most, $3 for Malaysia), that would imply ~235MM doses. That is 47% of the 500MM, and seems to be reasonable.
Now if we factor in 2 doses per person, that gets cut in half to under 25% of the in-scope population. That definitely seems like it's achievable, and the $1B would be a reasonable "potential".
Again... once we see the pathway cleared by the science of the peptides/blood testing....
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