if LL performs anywhere close to oncoimmunes drug,
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Posted On: 09/30/2020 11:54:35 PM
if LL performs anywhere close to oncoimmunes drug, then CD12 should be stopped at interim analysis!
oncoimmunes interim efficacy and safety analyses were performed when 146 patients achieved clinical recovery at day 29 with 203 enrollments so therefore we estimate 57 at risk of death or respiratory failure. majority will be deaths i.e. 80 - 90% or 46 - 51 deaths which is consistent with CD12. note that the enrollment ratio was 1:1 or N = 101
SACCOVID had a 60% better chance to achieve clinical recovery than those who received placebo (P=0.005). this translates to roughly 90/56 split in recoveries or 12/45 split for deaths/respiratory failure between drug/placebo. the lesson here is that a 38-45% mortality in placebo is within normal in these trials.
if we assume 38-45% mortality in placebo as normal, then that means the LL arm mortality can be assumed to be within 10 - 18%. All of the above could potentially close the trial, i would hope. when you tally all the eIND data for LL excluding montefiore as an outlier, the mortality averages 15% (23% if montefiore data included) - based on July 1 proactive update.
oncoimmunes interim efficacy and safety analyses were performed when 146 patients achieved clinical recovery at day 29 with 203 enrollments so therefore we estimate 57 at risk of death or respiratory failure. majority will be deaths i.e. 80 - 90% or 46 - 51 deaths which is consistent with CD12. note that the enrollment ratio was 1:1 or N = 101
SACCOVID had a 60% better chance to achieve clinical recovery than those who received placebo (P=0.005). this translates to roughly 90/56 split in recoveries or 12/45 split for deaths/respiratory failure between drug/placebo. the lesson here is that a 38-45% mortality in placebo is within normal in these trials.
if we assume 38-45% mortality in placebo as normal, then that means the LL arm mortality can be assumed to be within 10 - 18%. All of the above could potentially close the trial, i would hope. when you tally all the eIND data for LL excluding montefiore as an outlier, the mortality averages 15% (23% if montefiore data included) - based on July 1 proactive update.
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