Math Check Quote: I think worst case scenario
Post# of 148147
(Total Views: 684)
Posted On: 09/30/2020 4:02:56 PM
Math Check
Quote:
I think worst case scenario there's a 25% mortality rate in SOC and a 10% mortality rate for leronlimab.
The 25% worst case scenario was based on the Dexamethasone's 25% mortality in non-invasive oxygen.
Read More: https://investorshangout.com/post/newpost/605...z6ZYYP6B1C
195 Patients --> 2:1 LL vs placebo
roughly 130 LL to 65 placebo
expected deaths based on 25% of 195=48.75
so between 45-50 deaths would basically be expected...
death rate of 25% x 65 pts SOC= 16 expected
death rate of (guess) 10% x 130 pts LL + SOC= 13 expected
Total of only 29 deaths
Need to apply 16-21 more deaths to reach (45 or 50)
Change death rate to same as SOC rate-- 25% x 130 pts LL + SOC= 32.5
This math would indicate that unless there were more deaths in placebo than expected the rates are more similar than we want...
Hope I'm wrong here....
Quote:
I think worst case scenario there's a 25% mortality rate in SOC and a 10% mortality rate for leronlimab.
The 25% worst case scenario was based on the Dexamethasone's 25% mortality in non-invasive oxygen.
Read More: https://investorshangout.com/post/newpost/605...z6ZYYP6B1C
195 Patients --> 2:1 LL vs placebo
roughly 130 LL to 65 placebo
expected deaths based on 25% of 195=48.75
so between 45-50 deaths would basically be expected...
death rate of 25% x 65 pts SOC= 16 expected
death rate of (guess) 10% x 130 pts LL + SOC= 13 expected
Total of only 29 deaths
Need to apply 16-21 more deaths to reach (45 or 50)
Change death rate to same as SOC rate-- 25% x 130 pts LL + SOC= 32.5
This math would indicate that unless there were more deaths in placebo than expected the rates are more similar than we want...
Hope I'm wrong here....
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