Hi, Paul! You know I'm always game for some fun
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Posted On: 09/28/2020 7:45:58 PM
Re: Paul Jackson #21863
Hi, Paul!
You know I'm always game for some fun speculation. However, I don't think I can guess at a "reasonable" PPS would be w the signed contract and the upfront payment. But I will throw out some guesses as to what I think it MIGHT be... assuming no news on NGIO S1s/listing and only the signing of the Malaysian contract (not extrapolating to further AZ contracts, etc.)...
So if we see a signed contract, it COULD mean the peptides have been openly confirmed. If that's the case, we would be headed for testing, and we might garner some attention with such an announcement. In that case, I will guess we garner a decent but not huge dollar gain to somewhere back in the .70s/.80s. Again, not a huge dollar gain, but a triple or so from here, which would be fantastic.
If we see the signed contract and DON'T get explicit word on the peptides, I'll say that we will not get that high, because we would still have to assume the peptides are good. And no one values any assumptions for GNBT/NGIO. So I'll guess we may move back up to somewhere in the .40s.
Maybe that's conservative. But I just don't see the contract/$2.5MM alone getting us too far. I think it will take a combination of factors over the next month or so, including some NGIO listing action, further AZ signings, an award, or highly-recognized vaccine news to move us to the point where we have non-zero digit to the left of the decimal again.
I'm going to do some further number-crunching on the AZ rollout when I have a bit of time, so maybe I'll post some speculation on that for fun later!
You know I'm always game for some fun speculation. However, I don't think I can guess at a "reasonable" PPS would be w the signed contract and the upfront payment. But I will throw out some guesses as to what I think it MIGHT be... assuming no news on NGIO S1s/listing and only the signing of the Malaysian contract (not extrapolating to further AZ contracts, etc.)...
So if we see a signed contract, it COULD mean the peptides have been openly confirmed. If that's the case, we would be headed for testing, and we might garner some attention with such an announcement. In that case, I will guess we garner a decent but not huge dollar gain to somewhere back in the .70s/.80s. Again, not a huge dollar gain, but a triple or so from here, which would be fantastic.
If we see the signed contract and DON'T get explicit word on the peptides, I'll say that we will not get that high, because we would still have to assume the peptides are good. And no one values any assumptions for GNBT/NGIO. So I'll guess we may move back up to somewhere in the .40s.
Maybe that's conservative. But I just don't see the contract/$2.5MM alone getting us too far. I think it will take a combination of factors over the next month or so, including some NGIO listing action, further AZ signings, an award, or highly-recognized vaccine news to move us to the point where we have non-zero digit to the left of the decimal again.
I'm going to do some further number-crunching on the AZ rollout when I have a bit of time, so maybe I'll post some speculation on that for fun later!
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