While I'm loathe to post on another drug's success

While I'm loathe to post on another drug's success, the 9/24 release from OncoImmune can teach us a lot. Their DSMC closed this trial for efficacy at about 75% enrollment.

First, I'll mention that, looking at its MOA, Ohm noted that if this drug works, leronlimab should work in even better.

Basically their Phase III trial is using the same 7-category scale we have as a secondary endpoint. To be admitted, you have to be a 3 or 4 on that scale - getting oxygen but not intubated. "Clinical recovery" is defined as moving to a "2" score (hospitalized, no oxygen), progression was moving to a "5" (requiring intubation).

They claimed 60% increase in patients hitting clinical recovery (significant at p=.005) and a 50% reduction in patients progressing (not claimed as significant). So,

(1) Based on NEWS2 and SAEs, it sounds like our Phase 2 would have done similarly or better on comparable patient pop,

(2) on Phase 3, we can recreate exactly their results for our data for an apple-to-apples comparison,

(3) this interim was specified not by the number of patients, but by the number of recoveries, nice,

(4) we now know what results can cause a stopped trial,

(5) this drug is competition, but not for the trial of the sickest,

(6) OncoImmune also wrote a lousy press release IMO - my headline should have been: "OncoImmune in COVID 19 - Phase 3 trial halted for efficacy: Stat significant 60% increase in patients improving, 50% reduction in progressions,"

(7) Biospace noted the press release but has not otherwise commented in its news stream.