I'm with you, but hesitate to put too much hope into option 4 simply because we had the DSMC look at the trial for safety already (fewer patients but not by much) which almost had to give them the dead/not dead numbers of placebo vs drug, and they said continue trial. Continuing is good which means they are seeing promise in the drug arm vs placebo...but they could most likely have stopped it right there and chose not to if the numbers were staggeringly different no?
As much as I would like number 4, I get the feeling number 3(fill trial and beat our end point) will be our best bet.
Not pessimistic, but I've become much more of a realist over time as Cancer BTD was shot down needing more data. Covid EUA "request" was a "don't waste your time filing", and PDUFA date response was "give us more data".