Dude, not everyone is a short. Take the tin foil hat off.
It's just hard to work out with this company who is and who is out. The product science is amazing. Dr BP and Dr JL - their work speaks for itself.
The issue is the CEO has messed up com's so much and his behavior on the CC was so bad to an investor or potential investor (who could have been with a fund ? I don't know) who knows what goes down.
On several communications the CEO is saying - "yeah, it will be not a problem. If not EUA, then it will be a request for a P3, but we strongly believe an EUA and maybe p4 at the worse."
His best marketing was us. Spreading the word, and lets be honest here - we were free and he sort of burnt some of our good will (more for some than others).
Who knows what to believe. Seriously.
And I want this product to come to market. Why - here is the rub - everyone in the world will have to get this virus. It's like the cold and or the flu now - we are going to live with it for ages. You will get it ether via contact or via a modified version (ie. vaccine). But you will get it - thats how you build anitbodies (unless we are doing DNA alteration... don't rush any of that).
Let that sink in.
So this is serious. And if we don't have a drug like this (and others) its not only the virus to worry about - other risks kick in - mass poverty and other social changes have high chance of being among them. This will cause social change (some good / some bad) as commerce adapts. But that change will effect people - usually initially those that are least equipped to handle it - because they don't have the $.
I am not thinking about my investment - its not small but if I loose some I can handle it. I hope i don't , but such is life.
I am concerned about success because it means more than a $ here or there. So yeah, as Dr JL said - this drug is a gift from God. I don't care if NP stays or goes that much - but I hope he learns and goes for a better team. It doesn't matter what NP thinks about his team - they could be good. Make it better, because others now need to believe it's a better team.
One thing you release about Biotech that is unlike bringing a product to market in other industries - its actually 3 markets :
1) hospitals and the like - you have to sell to them to get them run studies
2) The FDA - you have to convince them to grant you access to 3)
3) the real TAM (total addressable market) - distributors, partnership deals, sick people, people sick people go to etc.
We are stuck between 1 and 2 now. NP is entrepreneur - they are good at shaking things up , raising funds and disrupting a market. He has had some success getting the rolling BLA etc. Hopefully he gets some more. But hope is not a strategy. What worked in the past may not work now, as this is a new game.
You can't disrupt 3) until you are successful in 1) and 2). You can't disrupt 2). In fact, i would say if anything Covid has disrupted 2) for you about as much as you are going to get. For the sake of the product and all of us who may need this sooner or later (because we will in some form all get this virus) get people that have done this more than once (in addition to your team) . They have a record of 2). And you are going to need cash. So when you see $100M in shares for compensation (25M shares at $4) and the same management seem to point to cash flow as why they can't get things done - something needs to change. Thats it - not sell your shares, or run away - you voice for change.
Because this may be our best chance of helping the world. If what Dr JL says in that podcast is true (and I believe him) then also believe him on his other quote - put the patient first and the rest takes care of itself. In this case, that starts with the trial design and knowing how to pass the FDA requirements. That is the question people are waiting on. That needs a team of experienced people (in addition to what they have now). At the moment we hear a lot about the operational side of this business ie. inventory etc - thats great. Get the FDA - treat it like a market you need a custom marketing team.
I don't believe all the BS about the shares either (they will need shares in some form to get good people, but how you do it is key). I know what you can do with those packages. For example - an RSU is a promise to give you shares, if something happens. There are usually at least 2 things that have to happen before the shares you may have vested become real, but sometimes more. They don't just become real - they are a promise to be real if xyz happens.
You could say issue the RSU's in 2 parts - a small part that can vest now of the OTC , but you can also restrict the promise to say only materialize for a specified liquidity event ie. say buy out or up-listing with a sustained SP for X months. ie. you can control you exposure if you don't have the cash for it now and still offer incentives. Options can also be structured similarly. They are not a gift. They are incentives and rewards. There are ways to do this that can let you use the $ for growing the business offer incentives and if done right put people beyond suspicion for greedy behavior etc.
Also go hard on the BLA etc.
It's just hard to work out with this company who is and who is out. The product science is amazing. Dr BP and Dr JL - their work speaks for itself.
The issue is the CEO has messed up com's so much and his behavior on the CC was so bad to an investor or potential investor (who could have been with a fund ? I don't know) who knows what goes down.
On several communications the CEO is saying - "yeah, it will be not a problem. If not EUA, then it will be a request for a P3, but we strongly believe an EUA and maybe p4 at the worse."
His best marketing was us. Spreading the word, and lets be honest here - we were free and he sort of burnt some of our good will (more for some than others).
Who knows what to believe. Seriously.
And I want this product to come to market. Why - here is the rub - everyone in the world will have to get this virus. It's like the cold and or the flu now - we are going to live with it for ages. You will get it ether via contact or via a modified version (ie. vaccine). But you will get it - thats how you build anitbodies (unless we are doing DNA alteration... don't rush any of that).
Let that sink in.
So this is serious. And if we don't have a drug like this (and others) its not only the virus to worry about - other risks kick in - mass poverty and other social changes have high chance of being among them. This will cause social change (some good / some bad) as commerce adapts. But that change will effect people - usually initially those that are least equipped to handle it - because they don't have the $.
I am not thinking about my investment - its not small but if I loose some I can handle it. I hope i don't , but such is life.
I am concerned about success because it means more than a $ here or there. So yeah, as Dr JL said - this drug is a gift from God. I don't care if NP stays or goes that much - but I hope he learns and goes for a better team. It doesn't matter what NP thinks about his team - they could be good. Make it better, because others now need to believe it's a better team.
One thing you release about Biotech that is unlike bringing a product to market in other industries - its actually 3 markets :
1) hospitals and the like - you have to sell to them to get them run studies
2) The FDA - you have to convince them to grant you access to 3)
3) the real TAM (total addressable market) - distributors, partnership deals, sick people, people sick people go to etc.
We are stuck between 1 and 2 now. NP is entrepreneur - they are good at shaking things up , raising funds and disrupting a market. He has had some success getting the rolling BLA etc. Hopefully he gets some more. But hope is not a strategy. What worked in the past may not work now, as this is a new game.
You can't disrupt 3) until you are successful in 1) and 2). You can't disrupt 2). In fact, i would say if anything Covid has disrupted 2) for you about as much as you are going to get. For the sake of the product and all of us who may need this sooner or later (because we will in some form all get this virus) get people that have done this more than once (in addition to your team) . They have a record of 2). And you are going to need cash. So when you see $100M in shares for compensation (25M shares at $4) and the same management seem to point to cash flow as why they can't get things done - something needs to change. Thats it - not sell your shares, or run away - you voice for change.
Because this may be our best chance of helping the world. If what Dr JL says in that podcast is true (and I believe him) then also believe him on his other quote - put the patient first and the rest takes care of itself. In this case, that starts with the trial design and knowing how to pass the FDA requirements. That is the question people are waiting on. That needs a team of experienced people (in addition to what they have now). At the moment we hear a lot about the operational side of this business ie. inventory etc - thats great. Get the FDA - treat it like a market you need a custom marketing team.
I don't believe all the BS about the shares either (they will need shares in some form to get good people, but how you do it is key). I know what you can do with those packages. For example - an RSU is a promise to give you shares, if something happens. There are usually at least 2 things that have to happen before the shares you may have vested become real, but sometimes more. They don't just become real - they are a promise to be real if xyz happens.
You could say issue the RSU's in 2 parts - a small part that can vest now of the OTC , but you can also restrict the promise to say only materialize for a specified liquidity event ie. say buy out or up-listing with a sustained SP for X months. ie. you can control you exposure if you don't have the cash for it now and still offer incentives. Options can also be structured similarly. They are not a gift. They are incentives and rewards. There are ways to do this that can let you use the $ for growing the business offer incentives and if done right put people beyond suspicion for greedy behavior etc.
Also go hard on the BLA etc.
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