Hi OJ, here is my predictions or assumption:

Hi OJ,

here is my predictions or assumption:

Deal with Malaysia 90%
Deal with Canada: 40%
Deal with China: 60%
BARDA: 50%
Progress with Covid: 100%
Swine Flu Trials: no idea

Here is my explanation.

First off, you forgot to mention the potential contract with Malaysia (Bintai Kinden), as this has already been announced by BK, I give that the highest probability.
Deal with Canada: It is a good sign that they made it onto the "short list", but I see chances as 2 out 5, because that is what I assume what Canada will select. Out of (assumed) 5 candidates on that short list, they will select 2 to support.
Deal with China. Since they are already in the process of contract negotiations (or were already by the time of the CC (almost 2 weeks ago!!)) it seems to me conservative to give this a little better than 50/50 chance of success.
BARDA: Since they have obviously already reviewed the entire application, and only had a 3 minor requests to add to the application, it seems to be all dependent on the lab test results. So should they be successful I give it a good chance that GNBT/NGIO would receive a BARDA support.
Progress with Covid: I still assume that they are making progress every day, and that they are dead serious with and fully focussed on that development, is demonstrated by them applying for financial grants with various entities, I am 100% sure that they will keep making progress on the CV vaccine. If the question whether this will finally lead to a working and commercially successful vaccine, then I am same way as you are a little more sceptical, but would still give it another 50/50 chance, and not just 1:10 such as you do.
Swine flu: I am must have missed this, as I have no idea what this is all about!

Hopefully this is what were looking for?