Charlie Cook: A Bounce Won't Do It. Trump Needs a
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Posted On: 09/02/2020 10:06:38 AM
Charlie Cook: A Bounce Won't Do It. Trump Needs a Post-Convention Vault.
Key take away:
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"This year, Trump is an incumbent defending a record, and he already fares poorly among independents in the polls. What’s more, he has been preoccupied with cultivating his base and has done little to draw voters outside of his comfort zone.
Every time I walk through the data on this election, it just reinforces my view that while an incumbent in this deep of a political hole might be able to climb out, it would require a focused and disciplined candidate, one who could stay on message and avoid extraneous fights—characteristics that do not seem to describe Trump.
Until the coronavirus pandemic hit, he was behind yet still polled within striking distance. But the public perception of his handling of the greatest crisis facing our country in three-quarters of a century is not favorable in any way. The tailwind he enjoyed from a strong economy is no longer there, either. His approval ratings on handling the economy are now little higher than his disapproval ratings on that issue. Apparently, the shelf life of a good economy that is no longer good is quite short.
Sure, there are uncertainties about the election process in this unique year, but signs point to a very large voter turnout. Both bases are highly motivated—Trump backers and critics alike—and where there is a will to vote, most will find a way. Besides, only a half dozen or so states will really matter.
Maybe Trump could pull this off, but I doubt it. The underlying factors in his upset win four years ago just don’t seem to be in place. Running as an incumbent is very different. A president who has never received a majority job-approval rating in a major national poll and who has seemingly muffed his greatest test? That is a tough challenge to win."
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/n...tion-vault
Key take away:
................
"This year, Trump is an incumbent defending a record, and he already fares poorly among independents in the polls. What’s more, he has been preoccupied with cultivating his base and has done little to draw voters outside of his comfort zone.
Every time I walk through the data on this election, it just reinforces my view that while an incumbent in this deep of a political hole might be able to climb out, it would require a focused and disciplined candidate, one who could stay on message and avoid extraneous fights—characteristics that do not seem to describe Trump.
Until the coronavirus pandemic hit, he was behind yet still polled within striking distance. But the public perception of his handling of the greatest crisis facing our country in three-quarters of a century is not favorable in any way. The tailwind he enjoyed from a strong economy is no longer there, either. His approval ratings on handling the economy are now little higher than his disapproval ratings on that issue. Apparently, the shelf life of a good economy that is no longer good is quite short.
Sure, there are uncertainties about the election process in this unique year, but signs point to a very large voter turnout. Both bases are highly motivated—Trump backers and critics alike—and where there is a will to vote, most will find a way. Besides, only a half dozen or so states will really matter.
Maybe Trump could pull this off, but I doubt it. The underlying factors in his upset win four years ago just don’t seem to be in place. Running as an incumbent is very different. A president who has never received a majority job-approval rating in a major national poll and who has seemingly muffed his greatest test? That is a tough challenge to win."
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/n...tion-vault
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