Bottom line from a new but dedicated investor
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(Total Views: 825)
Posted On: 08/20/2020 9:41:22 AM
Bottom line from a new but dedicated investor...
Based on my own due diligence and reading these boards for months, I wanted to follow the KISS principle and cut through the clutter:
Science:
-Compelling? Yes
-Does it work for multiple indications? Seems to
-Does it pass the smell test? Yes
CEO:
-Unpolished/excitable? Yes
-Transparent? Yes
-Doing everything in power to push forward and get to market? Yes
PR's:
-Does it show the CEO's devotion to complete transparency notwithstanding the grammatical issues? Yes
-Can it eventually be tightened up when they grow into a bigger co? Yes
-Is it helpful to the dedicated investor? Yes - see transparency
-Do I want them to keep doing these PR's? Yes - see transparency
FDA/trials/approval:
-Is everything moving forward slowly but surely? Yes - some hurdles / bumps but no negative game-changers at this time
Financials:
-Is the company flush with cash? No
-Can they continue to raise cash through non-dilutive or dilutive offerings going forward? Yes
-Worst case (in my mind): Do I care about a 5% dilution (aka ~25mm shares) at $3 to give the company cash for another year to get to the finish line for HIV/Covid and generate revenue? No. I'm ok with a $95 stock instead of a $100 stock...
Shorts:
-Do they exist? Yes
-Is there a seemingly concerted (& possibly paid) effort to short / create fear? Yes
-Could there be counterfeit shares & naked shorting going on? Possibly
-Does it matter for the daytrader? Yes - influences short term price movements, creates panic/fear/volatility
-Does it matter for the LT investor (i.e. Me)? No - eventual demand will outlast and outplay this assuming: Approval, revenue, social media / grassroots coverage of success stories, eventual media coverage
Long & strong for the long term for better or worse.
Based on my own due diligence and reading these boards for months, I wanted to follow the KISS principle and cut through the clutter:
Science:
-Compelling? Yes
-Does it work for multiple indications? Seems to
-Does it pass the smell test? Yes
CEO:
-Unpolished/excitable? Yes
-Transparent? Yes
-Doing everything in power to push forward and get to market? Yes
PR's:
-Does it show the CEO's devotion to complete transparency notwithstanding the grammatical issues? Yes
-Can it eventually be tightened up when they grow into a bigger co? Yes
-Is it helpful to the dedicated investor? Yes - see transparency
-Do I want them to keep doing these PR's? Yes - see transparency
FDA/trials/approval:
-Is everything moving forward slowly but surely? Yes - some hurdles / bumps but no negative game-changers at this time
Financials:
-Is the company flush with cash? No
-Can they continue to raise cash through non-dilutive or dilutive offerings going forward? Yes
-Worst case (in my mind): Do I care about a 5% dilution (aka ~25mm shares) at $3 to give the company cash for another year to get to the finish line for HIV/Covid and generate revenue? No. I'm ok with a $95 stock instead of a $100 stock...
Shorts:
-Do they exist? Yes
-Is there a seemingly concerted (& possibly paid) effort to short / create fear? Yes
-Could there be counterfeit shares & naked shorting going on? Possibly
-Does it matter for the daytrader? Yes - influences short term price movements, creates panic/fear/volatility
-Does it matter for the LT investor (i.e. Me)? No - eventual demand will outlast and outplay this assuming: Approval, revenue, social media / grassroots coverage of success stories, eventual media coverage
Long & strong for the long term for better or worse.
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