DATA POINTS: PREDICTING A WINNER (by Scooter) R
Post# of 148187
(Total Views: 812)
Posted On: 08/09/2020 12:49:16 PM
DATA POINTS: PREDICTING A WINNER (by Scooter)
Recently multiple new points of data have emerged suggesting CYDY will in fact be a winner. Let's breakdown what we know.
1. HIV BLA And The RTF: On Solid Ground.
We know from the RTF CYDY had out of house problems with manufacturing self injectible doses. The FDA also wanted the 700mg data since we are going for combo and monotherapy approvals.
So what we have is a drug that has shown enough efficacy that the FDA is fine with it. They just require other standards not within our direct control to be met.
It also shows that to avoid any complications with approving mono and combo therapy, they want the 700mg data to head that off in the future.
Most importantly no additional lab work or new studies are needed.
2. Emergency Approval PR: A Signpost To Efficacy.
If you are looking for red meat, Friday's PR should be a dinner bell for you. The announcement stated that an emergency approval would be submitted to the UK after the emergency approval being submitted to the FDA next week.
Unpacking that it means they know enough about their 14 day data that the top line report with show the efficacy everyone has been waiting for. While Nader has been late on delievering promises he has yet to be wrong about efficacy. He was right about HIV, even showing us the results in one presentation. He shared with us the EINDs. More telling our detractors have never challenged the science.
Most importantly our PRs are better crafted than Nader's presentations, sadly, but they are also always crystal clear. So taking that all into account, our efficacy is good enough for us to get approved.
3. Nader Better Explained.
We have all seen Nader sell shares at seemingly bad times without an explanation. Naturally anyone watching this can make hay on a CEO selling share all day long. It comes with the territory of a start up biotech, everyone wants to make a buck off of shorting it.
But some posts from Justdafacts and Nader's own statements have shed much needed light on this situation.
First Nader has stated that he cleared 84% of the company's debt. This isn't unusual for him, he brought the company out of bankruptcy when he first came on board.
The proof came when Justdafacts posted the Oregon UCC screenshot showing the commercial taxes being paid. UCC, Uniform Commerical Code, applies to businesses and not individuals in case you are wondering. Nader is a listed principle of the company.
Nader, not CYDY, is also fighting a lawsuit that he has to pay for. Again we know this from Justdafacts screenshot the other day that clarified CYDY as a "nominal defendant." Nominal defendants have no liability, responsibility and can't be recovered from. So CYDY is in no financial danger if things go south for Nader.
As everyone knows lawsuits are expensive, lawyers bill by the hour, right down to a 10th of an hour if they briefly go over your case in between other work. That all has to be paid for. So selling shares to cover legal fees saves you from trashing your take home pay while a lawsuit winds its way through court.
The withdrawn council from the Alpha Venture lawsuit occurred because since CYDY is no longer facing legal liability, they no longer need to represent them. Their work is done even though the lawsuit against Nader continues.
4. Gilead Has Stepped Up It's PR Attacks.
So it's the worst kept secret the Adam Feuerstein loves Gilead for some reason, often attributed to him getting a compensation for puffing them up. As we have gone through this journey with CYDY he has launched some pretty inflammatory and often misleading pieces from the gutter of STAT News.
We know that the game has gone into later innings with the appearance of The Wall Street Journal and it's hit piece from friends of Feuerstein. We also know they printed a retraction a day later, often cover for putting out an inflammatory story rather than accurately reporting the news.
We know there are a lot of reputations and financial interests tied up in seeing us fail. Gilead stands to lose on two major fronts. It's Remdesivir is effectively junk, and it's top line HIV drugs have a laundry list of SAEs and are second banana to Leronlimab.
Conservatively over 40 billion dollars is on the line for them. Losing the HIV market would be more than a blip for them on an earnings report. They are running out of time and options.
The Future
When we get our emergency approval I would not be surprised to see Gilead throw out a massive offer to buy us out. They have too. Income from COVID while we round out HIV means we are here to stay. The leverage from those threats to Gilead will let us command a King's ransom.
Gilead can justify it with the potential of our cancer trials and TNBC. Also major markets where those approvals would lead to a dramatic influx of revenue and profit.
In the meantime I would expect us to easily see 20 bucks upon emergency approval. Everything else becomes moot at that point. Getting to 20 bucks before uplisting would be ideal. As the institutional investors and everyone afraid of the OTC will just drive that price way up on the glut of buy orders.
If we somehow uplist before the approval it's still gravy.
I'd call us 85% or better for a win. Our efficacy for COVID is probably 50% or better.
Recently multiple new points of data have emerged suggesting CYDY will in fact be a winner. Let's breakdown what we know.
1. HIV BLA And The RTF: On Solid Ground.
We know from the RTF CYDY had out of house problems with manufacturing self injectible doses. The FDA also wanted the 700mg data since we are going for combo and monotherapy approvals.
So what we have is a drug that has shown enough efficacy that the FDA is fine with it. They just require other standards not within our direct control to be met.
It also shows that to avoid any complications with approving mono and combo therapy, they want the 700mg data to head that off in the future.
Most importantly no additional lab work or new studies are needed.
2. Emergency Approval PR: A Signpost To Efficacy.
If you are looking for red meat, Friday's PR should be a dinner bell for you. The announcement stated that an emergency approval would be submitted to the UK after the emergency approval being submitted to the FDA next week.
Unpacking that it means they know enough about their 14 day data that the top line report with show the efficacy everyone has been waiting for. While Nader has been late on delievering promises he has yet to be wrong about efficacy. He was right about HIV, even showing us the results in one presentation. He shared with us the EINDs. More telling our detractors have never challenged the science.
Most importantly our PRs are better crafted than Nader's presentations, sadly, but they are also always crystal clear. So taking that all into account, our efficacy is good enough for us to get approved.
3. Nader Better Explained.
We have all seen Nader sell shares at seemingly bad times without an explanation. Naturally anyone watching this can make hay on a CEO selling share all day long. It comes with the territory of a start up biotech, everyone wants to make a buck off of shorting it.
But some posts from Justdafacts and Nader's own statements have shed much needed light on this situation.
First Nader has stated that he cleared 84% of the company's debt. This isn't unusual for him, he brought the company out of bankruptcy when he first came on board.
The proof came when Justdafacts posted the Oregon UCC screenshot showing the commercial taxes being paid. UCC, Uniform Commerical Code, applies to businesses and not individuals in case you are wondering. Nader is a listed principle of the company.
Nader, not CYDY, is also fighting a lawsuit that he has to pay for. Again we know this from Justdafacts screenshot the other day that clarified CYDY as a "nominal defendant." Nominal defendants have no liability, responsibility and can't be recovered from. So CYDY is in no financial danger if things go south for Nader.
As everyone knows lawsuits are expensive, lawyers bill by the hour, right down to a 10th of an hour if they briefly go over your case in between other work. That all has to be paid for. So selling shares to cover legal fees saves you from trashing your take home pay while a lawsuit winds its way through court.
The withdrawn council from the Alpha Venture lawsuit occurred because since CYDY is no longer facing legal liability, they no longer need to represent them. Their work is done even though the lawsuit against Nader continues.
4. Gilead Has Stepped Up It's PR Attacks.
So it's the worst kept secret the Adam Feuerstein loves Gilead for some reason, often attributed to him getting a compensation for puffing them up. As we have gone through this journey with CYDY he has launched some pretty inflammatory and often misleading pieces from the gutter of STAT News.
We know that the game has gone into later innings with the appearance of The Wall Street Journal and it's hit piece from friends of Feuerstein. We also know they printed a retraction a day later, often cover for putting out an inflammatory story rather than accurately reporting the news.
We know there are a lot of reputations and financial interests tied up in seeing us fail. Gilead stands to lose on two major fronts. It's Remdesivir is effectively junk, and it's top line HIV drugs have a laundry list of SAEs and are second banana to Leronlimab.
Conservatively over 40 billion dollars is on the line for them. Losing the HIV market would be more than a blip for them on an earnings report. They are running out of time and options.
The Future
When we get our emergency approval I would not be surprised to see Gilead throw out a massive offer to buy us out. They have too. Income from COVID while we round out HIV means we are here to stay. The leverage from those threats to Gilead will let us command a King's ransom.
Gilead can justify it with the potential of our cancer trials and TNBC. Also major markets where those approvals would lead to a dramatic influx of revenue and profit.
In the meantime I would expect us to easily see 20 bucks upon emergency approval. Everything else becomes moot at that point. Getting to 20 bucks before uplisting would be ideal. As the institutional investors and everyone afraid of the OTC will just drive that price way up on the glut of buy orders.
If we somehow uplist before the approval it's still gravy.
I'd call us 85% or better for a win. Our efficacy for COVID is probably 50% or better.
(11)
(1)CytoDyn Inc (CYDY) Stock Research Links
Scroll down for more posts ▼