Usually when I'm optimistic about something, the Gods are quick to smack me back into place with a clear message regarding how wrong I could be, and in fact, was. But I'm going to do this anyway - so once you read this, stand at least 15 feet away from me to avoid being collateral damage when I'm struck by lightning. Talk about social distancing...yeesh. LOL
OK, we've all been waiting on pins and needles for BARDA news and the impact it will have on our pps. Well, what if we look at what happens if BARDA and the CV19 vaccine doesn't get off the ground? Are we still ok staying with GNBT?
My take (DUCK!) is that we will be good with or without BARDA, although probably better with than without. Here's my logic (RJS or Doc, please feel free to correct me if my "science" or terminology is wrong - hopefully, you all will get the message I'm trying to make anyway). IF the CV19 vaccine isn't picked up by anybody, we still have taken huge steps down a road that has never been taken before. A process was planned, contractors were secured and execution of the process was begun; peptides were simulated and identified as most likely to elicit an immune response; combos of those peptides are being tested against blood from actual virus victims to determine if the immune response can be generated. If it all stops right there, we have proven that there is a process to develop a synthetic vaccine, even if we don't know yet if it works. That's all good, but here is the best part...
We know Joe is doing everything he can to get NGIO listed. We also know he has lined up somewhere between $50 and $120 million in various packages to secure non-grant funding. We know that when NGIO is made public, there will be a public offering that will raise another $100 to $200 million for GNBT. So with or without BARDA, we will have cash to go forward.
Some of that money will go to the diabetes clinic/work, some will go to Altucel, some to Excellegan. NGIO money will be used for further AE37 research with TNBC, as well as prostate work. With all that going, I'm confident GNBT will now have avenues to raise further money with only minor dilution (if necessary), and some of that money will be available to resurrect the vaccine study. Maybe it will be for another novel CV??, the Swine flu that has been identified recently or maybe it will be for something as mundane as the annual flu. But if the process does work, and I'm confident Dr. EvH would not have stuck with it this long if he didn't truly believe it would, GNBT/NGIO will be able to develop a provable vaccine for some virus that they will be able to show the world.
In the meantime, the other funding will allow all the other initiatives to be pursued, which will start bringing tangible revenue to GNBT. The NGIO IPO should also put a huge asset on GNBT's books that will eventually be recognized in the pps. At that point, I think a lot of this uncertainty will be in our collective rear view mirrors, and we'll all be talking about what's the NEXT big thing for GNBT.
Would I prefer getting a BARDA grant today or tomorrow so the CV19 work can proceed full steam ahead? Damn right I would, because I think Joe and Co are going down the right vaccine path with a long term vaccine, while the RNA/mRNA vaccines will probably be temporary bandaids. I'm tired of worrying about going to the store or shaking hands with a neighbor (yep, I'm on the thin edge of that high risk group). And yes, I admit to wanting the financial reward from a successful GNBT vaccine, but I think with or without BARDA, we will get that reward over the next year or so.
Hey, there may even be an upside to not getting a BARDA grant - can you imagine if GNBT can pull off the vaccine development anyway, how stupid and politically motivated BARDA and the whole process will look? I don't think there will be enough middle fingers available in the world to shoot at the BARDA folks, if that happens. I know I'll be throwing a few, with a big-ass grin on my face.
OK, now stand clear while the lightning is thrown. Just hoping Zeus (or whoever is in charge of lightning retribution these days) has lost their touch (or eyesight) and isn't that great of shot. Probably another reason to socially distance yourselves from me right now.
OK, we've all been waiting on pins and needles for BARDA news and the impact it will have on our pps. Well, what if we look at what happens if BARDA and the CV19 vaccine doesn't get off the ground? Are we still ok staying with GNBT?
My take (DUCK!) is that we will be good with or without BARDA, although probably better with than without. Here's my logic (RJS or Doc, please feel free to correct me if my "science" or terminology is wrong - hopefully, you all will get the message I'm trying to make anyway). IF the CV19 vaccine isn't picked up by anybody, we still have taken huge steps down a road that has never been taken before. A process was planned, contractors were secured and execution of the process was begun; peptides were simulated and identified as most likely to elicit an immune response; combos of those peptides are being tested against blood from actual virus victims to determine if the immune response can be generated. If it all stops right there, we have proven that there is a process to develop a synthetic vaccine, even if we don't know yet if it works. That's all good, but here is the best part...
We know Joe is doing everything he can to get NGIO listed. We also know he has lined up somewhere between $50 and $120 million in various packages to secure non-grant funding. We know that when NGIO is made public, there will be a public offering that will raise another $100 to $200 million for GNBT. So with or without BARDA, we will have cash to go forward.
Some of that money will go to the diabetes clinic/work, some will go to Altucel, some to Excellegan. NGIO money will be used for further AE37 research with TNBC, as well as prostate work. With all that going, I'm confident GNBT will now have avenues to raise further money with only minor dilution (if necessary), and some of that money will be available to resurrect the vaccine study. Maybe it will be for another novel CV??, the Swine flu that has been identified recently or maybe it will be for something as mundane as the annual flu. But if the process does work, and I'm confident Dr. EvH would not have stuck with it this long if he didn't truly believe it would, GNBT/NGIO will be able to develop a provable vaccine for some virus that they will be able to show the world.
In the meantime, the other funding will allow all the other initiatives to be pursued, which will start bringing tangible revenue to GNBT. The NGIO IPO should also put a huge asset on GNBT's books that will eventually be recognized in the pps. At that point, I think a lot of this uncertainty will be in our collective rear view mirrors, and we'll all be talking about what's the NEXT big thing for GNBT.
Would I prefer getting a BARDA grant today or tomorrow so the CV19 work can proceed full steam ahead? Damn right I would, because I think Joe and Co are going down the right vaccine path with a long term vaccine, while the RNA/mRNA vaccines will probably be temporary bandaids. I'm tired of worrying about going to the store or shaking hands with a neighbor (yep, I'm on the thin edge of that high risk group). And yes, I admit to wanting the financial reward from a successful GNBT vaccine, but I think with or without BARDA, we will get that reward over the next year or so.
Hey, there may even be an upside to not getting a BARDA grant - can you imagine if GNBT can pull off the vaccine development anyway, how stupid and politically motivated BARDA and the whole process will look? I don't think there will be enough middle fingers available in the world to shoot at the BARDA folks, if that happens. I know I'll be throwing a few, with a big-ass grin on my face.
OK, now stand clear while the lightning is thrown. Just hoping Zeus (or whoever is in charge of lightning retribution these days) has lost their touch (or eyesight) and isn't that great of shot. Probably another reason to socially distance yourselves from me right now.
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