I agree. I would be very disappointed with a
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Posted On: 06/27/2020 2:41:23 AM
I agree.
I would be very disappointed with a buyout number that did not fully value the peak market potential of this molecule.
However, if you think about the shockingly large number of potential indications (courtesy of Ohm20), and the time and money necessary to validate those indications, it could take 3-6 years (or more) for a company like CytoDyn to properly validate the total market potential. I don't think there's time for that. Furthermore, by the time CytoDyn got to the end of that 'yellow brick road', no company could afford to buy them.
I don't mean any disrespect, but CytoDyn is a small and relatively inexperienced company that has just barely navigated an incredibly stressful chapter with the FDA and clinical trials. I have no doubt they are weary of FDA bias and BP manipulation. And I can only imagine them sitting around in the boardroom pondering what 3-6 more years of fighting with the FDA would be like -- and how much easier everything would be if they were operating at the scale of a BP.
If a small company doesn't have the time, money or intestinal fortitude to grow organically and go-it-alone, and wants or needs the muscle of a BP to accelerate the monetization of their molecule -- then I think either a major licensing deal (where the BP takes on all of those responsibilities), or an outright acquisition, is probably in the cards.
Speaking only for myself, a licensing deal would be more attractive. However, if it goes the way of a BP acquisition, the only way I can imagine shareholders benefiting from untested indications is a combination cash/stock deal with acquiring BP.
Of course, the problem with that is that leronlimab's value is mixed in with (and diluted by) the acquiring company's existing product portfolio and operational structure. And then you have the problem of the BP determining how many and which indications THEY want to target, and which indications they effectively want to 'shelve' in order to not erode sales of an existing product.
I have no idea how this is going to end. But I suspect Ohm20's list of indications would be a daunting prospect even for the largest BP in the world. So, how exactly is a company like CytoDyn ever going to grow fast enough (without making major mistakes along the way) in order to maximize market potential in the shortest amount of time, and before they lose protection?
I would be very disappointed with a buyout number that did not fully value the peak market potential of this molecule.
However, if you think about the shockingly large number of potential indications (courtesy of Ohm20), and the time and money necessary to validate those indications, it could take 3-6 years (or more) for a company like CytoDyn to properly validate the total market potential. I don't think there's time for that. Furthermore, by the time CytoDyn got to the end of that 'yellow brick road', no company could afford to buy them.
I don't mean any disrespect, but CytoDyn is a small and relatively inexperienced company that has just barely navigated an incredibly stressful chapter with the FDA and clinical trials. I have no doubt they are weary of FDA bias and BP manipulation. And I can only imagine them sitting around in the boardroom pondering what 3-6 more years of fighting with the FDA would be like -- and how much easier everything would be if they were operating at the scale of a BP.
If a small company doesn't have the time, money or intestinal fortitude to grow organically and go-it-alone, and wants or needs the muscle of a BP to accelerate the monetization of their molecule -- then I think either a major licensing deal (where the BP takes on all of those responsibilities), or an outright acquisition, is probably in the cards.
Speaking only for myself, a licensing deal would be more attractive. However, if it goes the way of a BP acquisition, the only way I can imagine shareholders benefiting from untested indications is a combination cash/stock deal with acquiring BP.
Of course, the problem with that is that leronlimab's value is mixed in with (and diluted by) the acquiring company's existing product portfolio and operational structure. And then you have the problem of the BP determining how many and which indications THEY want to target, and which indications they effectively want to 'shelve' in order to not erode sales of an existing product.
I have no idea how this is going to end. But I suspect Ohm20's list of indications would be a daunting prospect even for the largest BP in the world. So, how exactly is a company like CytoDyn ever going to grow fast enough (without making major mistakes along the way) in order to maximize market potential in the shortest amount of time, and before they lose protection?
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