Notwithstanding the nursing home misjudgment, NY flatted the curve of Covid19 cases and deaths, the red states preferred to learn the hard way. AOC is the right's wet dream, she's not on the ticket as far as the people described below are concerned. She's far from the whipping boy that McConnell and Barr are/will be.
In Poll, Trump Falls Far Behind Biden in Six Key Battleground States
Dwindling white support for the president leads to a deficit of at least six points in each state.
By Nate Cohn
June 25, 2020
NYT Upshot/
Siena College poll
Joe Biden holds a strong lead among registered voters in six battleground states carried by Donald Trump in 2016.
2016 Result NYT/Siena June 2020
Michigan (n=610) <1 Trump +11 Biden
47-36
Wisconsin (655) <1 Trump +11 Biden
49-38
Pennsylvania (651) <1 Trump +10 Biden
50-40
Florida (651) +1 Trump +6 Biden
47-41
Arizona (650) +4 Trump +7 Biden
48-41
North Carolina (653) +4 Trump +9 Biden
49-40
President Trump has lost significant ground in the six battleground states that clinched his Electoral College victory in 2016, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys, with Joseph R. Biden Jr. opening double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Mr. Trump’s once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, a development that would all but preclude the president’s re-election if it persisted. Mr. Biden now has a 21-point lead among white college graduates, and the president is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states — not by much, but he won them by nearly 10 points in 2016.
Four years ago, Mr. Trump’s strength in the disproportionately white working-class battleground states allowed him to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. The surveys indicate that the president continues to fare better in these relatively white battleground states than he does nationwide.
A separate Times/Siena survey released on Wednesday found Mr. Biden leading by 14 points nationwide, 50 percent to 36 percent.
Mr. Biden would win the presidency with at least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most combinations of any three of the six states — which also include Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — would suffice.
With a little more than four months to go until the election, there is still time for the president’s political standing to recover, just as it did on so many occasions four years ago. He maintains a substantial advantage on the economy, which could become an even more central issue in what has already been a volatile election cycle. And many of the undecided voters in these states lean Republican, and may end up returning to their party’s nominee.
But for now, the findings confirm that the president’s political standing has deteriorated sharply since October, when Times/Siena polls found Mr. Biden ahead by just two percentage points across the same six states (the average gap is now nine points). Since then, the nation has faced a series of crises that would pose a grave political challenge to any president seeking re-election. The polls suggest that battleground-state voters believe the president has struggled to meet the moment.
Over all, 42 percent of voters in the battleground states approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job as president, while 54 percent disapprove.
These six states — with their mix of major cities, old industrial hubs, growing suburbs, and even farmland — together deliver a grim judgment of Mr. Trump on recent issues that have shaken American life. His handling of the pandemic and the protests after the death of George Floyd help explain his erosion across both old and new battlegrounds.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/pol...e9f650852d
Allan Larson, 83, a recently retired mechanical engineer in Apache Junction, Ariz., began to regret his vote for the president shortly after he took office — he said Mr. Trump tried to do away with too many things President Obama had done, and kept firing good people — but his handling of the pandemic solidified his views.
“He’s not doing anything about this here virus,” said Mr. Larson, who plans to vote for Mr. Biden. “Just the way he’s running things, I don’t think he’s doing the job he should do.”
On these recent issues, voter disapproval reflects more than just general dissatisfaction with the state of the country. It seems to reflect deeper disagreement with the president’s prioritization of the economy over stopping the spread of coronavirus, and with his focus on law and order over criminal justice.
A majority of voters, 63 percent, say they would rather back a presidential candidate who focuses on the cause of protests, even when the protests go too far, while just 31 percent say they would prefer to support a candidate who says we need to be tough on demonstrations that go too far.
Despite double-digit unemployment, 55 percent of voters in these six states say the federal government’s priority should be to limit the spread of the coronavirus, even if it hurts the economy, while just 35 percent say the federal government’s priority should be to restart the economy. Even the newly unemployed, who would seem to have the most to gain from a reopened economy, say stopping the coronavirus should be the government’s priority.
A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.
As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.
Mr. Trump retains the support of 86 percent of respondents who said they voted for him in 2016, down from 92 percent in October.
Mr. Biden, by contrast, has emerged from a contested primary with a unified Democratic coalition. He wins 93 percent of the voters who backed Mrs. Clinton four years ago, as well as 92 percent of self-identified Democrats. Mr. Biden also enjoys a significant advantage among those who voted for neither Mr. Trump nor Mrs. Clinton in 2016. He has a 35-point lead among battleground voters who said they backed a minor-party candidate or wrote in another.
Together, these shifts give Mr. Biden a six-point lead among voters who participated in the 2016 election, according to voter-file records. The same voters said they backed Mr. Trump over Mrs. Clinton in 2016 by 2.5 percentage points, slightly better for Mr. Trump than the actual result of the six states, offering a level of validity to the survey’s findings. Mr. Biden also has a 17-point lead among registered voters who did not vote in the 2016 race.
Mr. Trump’s edge among white voters has dwindled despite national attention to the kind of racial issues that many analysts believed propelled his strength among white voters in the first place. If attitudes about race were vital to Mr. Trump’s appeal with white voters, then a foundation of his strength has been badly shaken.
In Poll, Trump Falls Far Behind Biden in Six Key Battleground States
Dwindling white support for the president leads to a deficit of at least six points in each state.
By Nate Cohn
June 25, 2020
NYT Upshot/
Siena College poll
Joe Biden holds a strong lead among registered voters in six battleground states carried by Donald Trump in 2016.
2016 Result NYT/Siena June 2020
Michigan (n=610) <1 Trump +11 Biden
47-36
Wisconsin (655) <1 Trump +11 Biden
49-38
Pennsylvania (651) <1 Trump +10 Biden
50-40
Florida (651) +1 Trump +6 Biden
47-41
Arizona (650) +4 Trump +7 Biden
48-41
North Carolina (653) +4 Trump +9 Biden
49-40
President Trump has lost significant ground in the six battleground states that clinched his Electoral College victory in 2016, according to New York Times/Siena College surveys, with Joseph R. Biden Jr. opening double-digit leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Mr. Trump’s once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, a development that would all but preclude the president’s re-election if it persisted. Mr. Biden now has a 21-point lead among white college graduates, and the president is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states — not by much, but he won them by nearly 10 points in 2016.
Four years ago, Mr. Trump’s strength in the disproportionately white working-class battleground states allowed him to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. The surveys indicate that the president continues to fare better in these relatively white battleground states than he does nationwide.
A separate Times/Siena survey released on Wednesday found Mr. Biden leading by 14 points nationwide, 50 percent to 36 percent.
Mr. Biden would win the presidency with at least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most combinations of any three of the six states — which also include Florida, Arizona and North Carolina — would suffice.
With a little more than four months to go until the election, there is still time for the president’s political standing to recover, just as it did on so many occasions four years ago. He maintains a substantial advantage on the economy, which could become an even more central issue in what has already been a volatile election cycle. And many of the undecided voters in these states lean Republican, and may end up returning to their party’s nominee.
But for now, the findings confirm that the president’s political standing has deteriorated sharply since October, when Times/Siena polls found Mr. Biden ahead by just two percentage points across the same six states (the average gap is now nine points). Since then, the nation has faced a series of crises that would pose a grave political challenge to any president seeking re-election. The polls suggest that battleground-state voters believe the president has struggled to meet the moment.
Over all, 42 percent of voters in the battleground states approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job as president, while 54 percent disapprove.
These six states — with their mix of major cities, old industrial hubs, growing suburbs, and even farmland — together deliver a grim judgment of Mr. Trump on recent issues that have shaken American life. His handling of the pandemic and the protests after the death of George Floyd help explain his erosion across both old and new battlegrounds.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/pol...e9f650852d
Allan Larson, 83, a recently retired mechanical engineer in Apache Junction, Ariz., began to regret his vote for the president shortly after he took office — he said Mr. Trump tried to do away with too many things President Obama had done, and kept firing good people — but his handling of the pandemic solidified his views.
“He’s not doing anything about this here virus,” said Mr. Larson, who plans to vote for Mr. Biden. “Just the way he’s running things, I don’t think he’s doing the job he should do.”
On these recent issues, voter disapproval reflects more than just general dissatisfaction with the state of the country. It seems to reflect deeper disagreement with the president’s prioritization of the economy over stopping the spread of coronavirus, and with his focus on law and order over criminal justice.
A majority of voters, 63 percent, say they would rather back a presidential candidate who focuses on the cause of protests, even when the protests go too far, while just 31 percent say they would prefer to support a candidate who says we need to be tough on demonstrations that go too far.
Despite double-digit unemployment, 55 percent of voters in these six states say the federal government’s priority should be to limit the spread of the coronavirus, even if it hurts the economy, while just 35 percent say the federal government’s priority should be to restart the economy. Even the newly unemployed, who would seem to have the most to gain from a reopened economy, say stopping the coronavirus should be the government’s priority.
A high-profile clash with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan encapsulates the president’s challenge. Mr. Trump sided with protesters who opposed her stay-at-home orders, but voters in the state oppose the protests against social distancing restrictions by 57 percent to 37 percent.
As of now, 59 percent of voters in Michigan disapprove of Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, the highest level of disapproval in any battleground state polled. And nearly 40 percent of registered voters there, including 11 percent of Republicans, say he has treated their state worse than others in response to the pandemic.
Mr. Trump retains the support of 86 percent of respondents who said they voted for him in 2016, down from 92 percent in October.
Mr. Biden, by contrast, has emerged from a contested primary with a unified Democratic coalition. He wins 93 percent of the voters who backed Mrs. Clinton four years ago, as well as 92 percent of self-identified Democrats. Mr. Biden also enjoys a significant advantage among those who voted for neither Mr. Trump nor Mrs. Clinton in 2016. He has a 35-point lead among battleground voters who said they backed a minor-party candidate or wrote in another.
Together, these shifts give Mr. Biden a six-point lead among voters who participated in the 2016 election, according to voter-file records. The same voters said they backed Mr. Trump over Mrs. Clinton in 2016 by 2.5 percentage points, slightly better for Mr. Trump than the actual result of the six states, offering a level of validity to the survey’s findings. Mr. Biden also has a 17-point lead among registered voters who did not vote in the 2016 race.
Mr. Trump’s edge among white voters has dwindled despite national attention to the kind of racial issues that many analysts believed propelled his strength among white voters in the first place. If attitudes about race were vital to Mr. Trump’s appeal with white voters, then a foundation of his strength has been badly shaken.
