Hey, Paul, I assume none of us are experts in BARD
Post# of 36568
(Total Views: 365)
Posted On: 06/22/2020 8:51:37 PM
Re: Paul Jackson #17404
Hey, Paul, I assume none of us are experts in BARDA and/or CEPI funding. But I thought your post (17404) was worth a little more discussion and a bit of speculation from the board.
For my 2 cents’ worth, I have to say:
1). I have a hard time seeing any organization giving hundreds of millions of dollars, let alone billions of dollars in funding to a company like GNBT/NGIO, regardless of their belief in the science. If an org is impressed enough w the science, scientists, and presentation (fingers crossed on that one), I believe funding will be gradual. There would be a relatively small initial burst with milestones that have to be met along the way in order to release further funding. Also, the funding won’t be able to be used throughout GNBT/NGIO. It will be restricted to items that are attributable to the vaccine development (this one we have already seen to be true thru the documentation). Isn’t that how you would do it, if you were disbursing that kind of funding?
2). This means that any initial funding won’t directly start the wheels turning in any part of GNBT that isn’t working on the vaccine. This would not be a company-wide windfall, at least not right off the bat.
3). I believe the real short-term opportunity to GNBT comes thru visibility. The visibility of a relatively small grant, or a program of grants that build on progress, would attract attention to the company and the science. And that attention could drive outside investment, thru the NGIO share spin or direct investment in NGIO or GNBT. Or the visibility could simply push up the GNBT share price on speculation and unlock one of the GNBT S-1s or other funding avenues.
4). So if I had to guess, I would say that if GNBT gets funding from one of the major gov’t or charity orgs, it will be an initial injection in the range of $10-25MM? That is still an ‘if’, but frankly, with the kind of money flying around and the severity of the problem, I do think SOMEONE will roll the dice on this science.
5). If there is success in the next couple of steps in the vaccine plan, maybe 3-4 months from now, THAT is where the big dollars would start to come in to make the plan feasible: putting contracts and $s in play to line up the materials, manufacturing, distribution, etc necessary to get the vaccine ready if the trials are successful.
6). As much as it would mean to GNBT/NGIO (and us) to have success on the next steps of vaccine development, leading to an unlocking of funding for the grand plan with the vaccine (not to mention the immeasurable potential value to humanity), I believe it is the initial, potentially much smaller, funding that is the true key for GNBT/NGIO. I don’t feel like we need that huge 9-10 figure amount in the next month or so... but we do seem to NEED that initial 8-figure amount and the exposure and validation it would bring... soon.
7). Maybe I am wrong... We don’t have any inkling or visibility to what the interest in the NGIO spin might be. Maybe right now Joe is sitting on offers to buy the ~80MM shares of NGIO for $4-5/share, and he is simply waiting to see where the CV funding falls so he can wring more out of those shares.
. Excellagen may be dead in the water for a while due to CV, and there appear to be zero other organic options to get us moving. So, as many of us have been saying for a while, success thru NGIO is THE Lynch pin. If NGIO fails in the short term, our prospects become slim... IMHO.
Looking forward to comments from smarter and more-experienced minds than mine!
For my 2 cents’ worth, I have to say:
1). I have a hard time seeing any organization giving hundreds of millions of dollars, let alone billions of dollars in funding to a company like GNBT/NGIO, regardless of their belief in the science. If an org is impressed enough w the science, scientists, and presentation (fingers crossed on that one), I believe funding will be gradual. There would be a relatively small initial burst with milestones that have to be met along the way in order to release further funding. Also, the funding won’t be able to be used throughout GNBT/NGIO. It will be restricted to items that are attributable to the vaccine development (this one we have already seen to be true thru the documentation). Isn’t that how you would do it, if you were disbursing that kind of funding?
2). This means that any initial funding won’t directly start the wheels turning in any part of GNBT that isn’t working on the vaccine. This would not be a company-wide windfall, at least not right off the bat.
3). I believe the real short-term opportunity to GNBT comes thru visibility. The visibility of a relatively small grant, or a program of grants that build on progress, would attract attention to the company and the science. And that attention could drive outside investment, thru the NGIO share spin or direct investment in NGIO or GNBT. Or the visibility could simply push up the GNBT share price on speculation and unlock one of the GNBT S-1s or other funding avenues.
4). So if I had to guess, I would say that if GNBT gets funding from one of the major gov’t or charity orgs, it will be an initial injection in the range of $10-25MM? That is still an ‘if’, but frankly, with the kind of money flying around and the severity of the problem, I do think SOMEONE will roll the dice on this science.
5). If there is success in the next couple of steps in the vaccine plan, maybe 3-4 months from now, THAT is where the big dollars would start to come in to make the plan feasible: putting contracts and $s in play to line up the materials, manufacturing, distribution, etc necessary to get the vaccine ready if the trials are successful.
6). As much as it would mean to GNBT/NGIO (and us) to have success on the next steps of vaccine development, leading to an unlocking of funding for the grand plan with the vaccine (not to mention the immeasurable potential value to humanity), I believe it is the initial, potentially much smaller, funding that is the true key for GNBT/NGIO. I don’t feel like we need that huge 9-10 figure amount in the next month or so... but we do seem to NEED that initial 8-figure amount and the exposure and validation it would bring... soon.
7). Maybe I am wrong... We don’t have any inkling or visibility to what the interest in the NGIO spin might be. Maybe right now Joe is sitting on offers to buy the ~80MM shares of NGIO for $4-5/share, and he is simply waiting to see where the CV funding falls so he can wring more out of those shares.
. Excellagen may be dead in the water for a while due to CV, and there appear to be zero other organic options to get us moving. So, as many of us have been saying for a while, success thru NGIO is THE Lynch pin. If NGIO fails in the short term, our prospects become slim... IMHO. Looking forward to comments from smarter and more-experienced minds than mine!
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