Djpele — There are assumptions implicit in your
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Posted On: 06/20/2020 3:05:32 PM
Djpele — There are assumptions implicit in your brief statement that I question. In other places some people have used similar assumptions to conclude that the train has left the station and QTM has missed its opportunity to carve out a Covid market niche. I will describe what to me are the main elements of a countervailing narrative.
To date, 5% of US population has been exposed to Covid-19, with 120K deaths. To get to 60% exposure (effective minimum threshold for Herd Immunity) twelve times that many deaths will occur. Short of a vaccine we could be looking well north of 1.5 million deaths before HI starts to kick in. That’s 1.5 M deaths to be even close to HI. Its taken three-plus months to reach five percent.
NYC has the highest exposure: 1 in 39 exposed and tested 2.5%. Real exposure may be much higher. We are slowing nationwide, which is less death, but puts herd immunity out of reach. If we don't have a vaccine coming, expect rules to strategically lessen to allow an increasing exposure to match the increasing immunity, thereby maintaining 2k deaths a day.
2K per day death rate as a metric for achieving HI is based on past evidence of the carrying capacity of the US health care system (avoiding something like Italy where people who could have been saved were turned away) and based on past experience of a level of political blowback that does not surpass the carrying capacity of the political system (localized to MSNBC and public heath experts and politicians that take such concerns seriously).
Each successive 5% will takes the same time if optimized at 2K deaths per day — SD rules lessen as we become less vulnerable (with most vulnerable cohorts and sub-groups dying in greater proportions in earlier waves). We should expect to return to 2K deaths per day in the fall.
I suppose one could view the Trump rally in Tulsa today as an early example of policies designed to vastly accelerate, or force the issue, of the drive toward HI. The phased incremental policies of some states are designed to delay of truncate the secular trend.
I suppose that brings us back to QTM and how aggressive businesses and individuals want to be in choosing to opt in or opt out of the risk pool in the drive toward HI (the virus doesn’t care).
To date, 5% of US population has been exposed to Covid-19, with 120K deaths. To get to 60% exposure (effective minimum threshold for Herd Immunity) twelve times that many deaths will occur. Short of a vaccine we could be looking well north of 1.5 million deaths before HI starts to kick in. That’s 1.5 M deaths to be even close to HI. Its taken three-plus months to reach five percent.
NYC has the highest exposure: 1 in 39 exposed and tested 2.5%. Real exposure may be much higher. We are slowing nationwide, which is less death, but puts herd immunity out of reach. If we don't have a vaccine coming, expect rules to strategically lessen to allow an increasing exposure to match the increasing immunity, thereby maintaining 2k deaths a day.
2K per day death rate as a metric for achieving HI is based on past evidence of the carrying capacity of the US health care system (avoiding something like Italy where people who could have been saved were turned away) and based on past experience of a level of political blowback that does not surpass the carrying capacity of the political system (localized to MSNBC and public heath experts and politicians that take such concerns seriously).
Each successive 5% will takes the same time if optimized at 2K deaths per day — SD rules lessen as we become less vulnerable (with most vulnerable cohorts and sub-groups dying in greater proportions in earlier waves). We should expect to return to 2K deaths per day in the fall.
I suppose one could view the Trump rally in Tulsa today as an early example of policies designed to vastly accelerate, or force the issue, of the drive toward HI. The phased incremental policies of some states are designed to delay of truncate the secular trend.
I suppose that brings us back to QTM and how aggressive businesses and individuals want to be in choosing to opt in or opt out of the risk pool in the drive toward HI (the virus doesn’t care).
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