Quote:If we hit $20 billion total revenue in x amount of years that would work out to a $50 sp at 8 million shares outstanding which would be more than I could hope for even being an ardent believer in the science for over a year and a half.
Let's just look at NASH in the U.S. It is estimated that 10 million U.S. adults have NASH, not the less serious NAFLD. In a previous analysis I used 20% market penetration across all indications. Let's go even more conservative and say 10%. That would mean 1 million patients.
Assume $30,000 cost after discounts etc. - $1,000 overhead for sales = $29,000 / 2 (50% after net) = $14,500 - 6.5% royalty @ $30k ($1950) = $12,550 - $500 internal overhead = $12,050 earnings
1,000,000 patients x $12,050 = $12.05 billion in earnings x 12 EPS = $144.6 billion market cap / 730 million shares = $198 per share
Even if there's only 2% market penetration that's $39 for just NASH.
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