Listened to the call three times, probably the bes
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Posted On: 06/12/2020 1:33:31 AM
Listened to the call three times, probably the best one yet.
Clear, concise and professional performances delivered by all three gentlemen. Starting to feel like there is some depth on the management bench. And Dr. SK sounds like an excellent addition to the team.
It may have been by design, but the progress reported in the other indications made me feel less like COVID approval was going to have a binary effect on the ultimate success or failure of the company. And I make this comment only because of CytoDyn's intense focus on COVID for the better part of the YTD.
At the same time, I do think COVID approval is extremely important for reasons that don't need to be repeated. The anticipated increase in A/S was always going to be necessary -- but I think it also serves as 'Plan B' in terms of providing the company with a backstop for raising capital in case we fall down on COVID, and don't get to enjoy that revenue stream.
I will be extremely disappointed if that happens, especially if it is due to a slight statistical weakness in the face of otherwise sufficiently positive patient outcomes. I also wouldn't be happy with demands for additional trials, but I think Dr.NP is resigned to that possibility and is preparing investors for the same.
Up until tonight, I had thought Mexico would be our COVID indication savior, if the FDA rejected -- but something seems not quite right. This is taking much longer than I expected (even subtracting out my impatience) and I can't help but wonder if they have decided to just watch how the US trials pan out. I hope I'm wrong.
During the manufacturing / revenue discussion, I was a bit surprised that they were only projecting 1.5M vials for 2020 and almost 6M vials for 2021. I am certain Dr.NP has indicated in multiple calls that Samsung might be able produce up to 3 batches this year. Furthermore, if approval is granted for US, and maybe a handful of other countries, why would Samsung only produce 6M vials in 2021?
It's not that I want the revenue numbers to be higher (although I wouldn't complain) -- it's that these numbers don't seem track with potential global demand -- or Samsung's stated production capacity. Maybe the decision was made to err on the conservative side, not only because of possible future COVID competition, but also because the company is maturing and getting 'camera ready' for an exchange (and investors) that won't tolerate revenue exaggeration. Always better to under-promise -- and over deliver.
Love the news about the Alzheimer’s trial. If we get even one indication approval, I can envision a time where similar trials for a variety of other indications might be conducted by interested parties at little-to-no cost to CYDY. It's a force multiplier.
Lastly, I was encouraged to hear that Dr. Yang was on the FDA call yesterday. There have been at least two videos where he seemed a bit non-committal and less enthusiastic than I would have thought -- but that is undoubtedly appropriate behavior for a Principal Investigator of a clinical trial. In any case, it was good to hear that he is still involved and putting his shoulder being the drug.
Clear, concise and professional performances delivered by all three gentlemen. Starting to feel like there is some depth on the management bench. And Dr. SK sounds like an excellent addition to the team.
It may have been by design, but the progress reported in the other indications made me feel less like COVID approval was going to have a binary effect on the ultimate success or failure of the company. And I make this comment only because of CytoDyn's intense focus on COVID for the better part of the YTD.
At the same time, I do think COVID approval is extremely important for reasons that don't need to be repeated. The anticipated increase in A/S was always going to be necessary -- but I think it also serves as 'Plan B' in terms of providing the company with a backstop for raising capital in case we fall down on COVID, and don't get to enjoy that revenue stream.
I will be extremely disappointed if that happens, especially if it is due to a slight statistical weakness in the face of otherwise sufficiently positive patient outcomes. I also wouldn't be happy with demands for additional trials, but I think Dr.NP is resigned to that possibility and is preparing investors for the same.
Up until tonight, I had thought Mexico would be our COVID indication savior, if the FDA rejected -- but something seems not quite right. This is taking much longer than I expected (even subtracting out my impatience) and I can't help but wonder if they have decided to just watch how the US trials pan out. I hope I'm wrong.
During the manufacturing / revenue discussion, I was a bit surprised that they were only projecting 1.5M vials for 2020 and almost 6M vials for 2021. I am certain Dr.NP has indicated in multiple calls that Samsung might be able produce up to 3 batches this year. Furthermore, if approval is granted for US, and maybe a handful of other countries, why would Samsung only produce 6M vials in 2021?
It's not that I want the revenue numbers to be higher (although I wouldn't complain) -- it's that these numbers don't seem track with potential global demand -- or Samsung's stated production capacity. Maybe the decision was made to err on the conservative side, not only because of possible future COVID competition, but also because the company is maturing and getting 'camera ready' for an exchange (and investors) that won't tolerate revenue exaggeration. Always better to under-promise -- and over deliver.
Love the news about the Alzheimer’s trial. If we get even one indication approval, I can envision a time where similar trials for a variety of other indications might be conducted by interested parties at little-to-no cost to CYDY. It's a force multiplier.
Lastly, I was encouraged to hear that Dr. Yang was on the FDA call yesterday. There have been at least two videos where he seemed a bit non-committal and less enthusiastic than I would have thought -- but that is undoubtedly appropriate behavior for a Principal Investigator of a clinical trial. In any case, it was good to hear that he is still involved and putting his shoulder being the drug.
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