Disease progression COVID-19 In the mild/modera

Disease progression COVID-19

In the mild/moderate trial the primary outcome is clinical improvement. This is also the secondary outcome for severe/critical.

I ran across a study, mild/moderate patients had a variety of treatments (antiviral therapy combined with as needed antibiotics, expectorant, Chinese patent medicines, low flow oxygen etc.) That would seem to be close to using placebo. 19.6% progressed to higher severity. With severe/critical patients similar medicinal treatments and low flow oxygen to ventilators. In those cases progression was 27.8% severe, 66.7% critical.
https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/202...00990-2020

Will leronlimab's results be statistically significant? I believe so. If one goes by the 19.6% progression (which does not include stable disease) the expected number of moderate patients on placebo in the trial who progress would be expected to be 4 (58 patients). With no progression/reversal in leronlimab and 4 progression in placebo the P value = 0.0394.

If using severe only 27.8% progression and 51 patients, 5 patients in the progression arm would progress. With no progression/reversal in leronlimab and 5 progression in placebo the P value= 0.0241.