Fortuno For the third and hopefully last time I
Post# of 148158
(Total Views: 651)
Posted On: 06/04/2020 4:45:33 PM
Fortuno
For the third and hopefully last time I will explain to you why I don't think that warrant holders selling is significant. See my responses supported by actual data to your post:
QUOTE
You're asking me to prove something that just can't be proved.
What we do know is that the share price hasn't gone up while the number of outstanding shares is increasing due to warrant excersises.
There has been (and still is) increased demand for the shares, that's noticable because there have been a lot of new names showing up on this board.
Someone is supplying all that new demand.
I am shocked that someone would measure the demand for shares based upon the amount of new names showing up on a message board. You post which is ¾ of a day old now has 300 views – not a great indicator in my mind.
Luckily for you I have pulled together some data that really demonstrates investor interest in a stock – daily trading volume. The data disproves your theory that there is increased demand for shares (which is the first of the many wrong assertions that you make)
The average daily volume over the last two months is as follows:
April: 213M shares traded over 21 days for an avg of 10.1 Million shares a day
May: 101M shares traded over 20 days for avg of 5.07 million shares per day
June 10.5 million shares traded over 4 days for an avg of 2.63 million shares per day
This disproves with data that there is increasing demand for the stock lately.
QUOTE
I don't share your view on the tax implications of selling shares as one can chose which shares have been sold. Obviously one would pick the older lots with a 20% tax rate.
Now even your own commenst contradicts your proposition. If you sold older lots, then you would not be selling warrants that you exercised recently since the 20% tax rate applies to warrants held for a year
The selling of warrantholders isn't ubstantiated it makes very much sense.
Again, your comment without any data is easily disproven. If you just look at sales for the last two months, over 300million shares were sold. Even if you assume only 50% of the sales are from warrant holders, they would have had to sell over 150Million shares in just two months. Unless they are selling to other warrant holders, these size of sales would exhaust shares held by warrant holders especially if you extend the analysis for the many months you have been claiming that this situation existed. Either you were wrong before or there can’t be any shares left for warrant holders to sell from their accounts. You can’t have it both ways so were you wrong before or is this problem one that no longer exists?
QUOTE
I'm thinking of derisking, but also profit taking and warrant holders that would like to exercise but lack funds to do so or don't want to increase the liquidity put into Cydy (as the exercise price has to be paid).
People who didn’t want to increase their liquidity into CYDY simply would let their options sit unexercised since they likely have years left until they expire. If in fact they did exercise their warrants, it would actually be good for the company since exercising warrants brings in cash to the company which we desperately need. Now that there are significant gains, the smart person who exercises a warrant would hold for a year to save 17% on their tax bill (37% to 20%)
QUOTE
What is it according to you that keeps the share price from going up?
And could you provide any proof?
Cheers!
My conclusion based upon all of the facts that I provided is that warrant holders selling is not causing the stock price to be held which I believe is the assertion that you keep making.
To better support you position you should look back a year as to when warrants were executed to see the timeframe in which those help in taxable accounts might be sold which would of course depend on whether the holder thought there was a price inflection point coming in the near term in which case they still might hold a bit longer.
I await your proof and supporting data why you still think that warrant holder selling is a major factor in holding down the stock price.
IMO
Cheers,
Sunclouds
For the third and hopefully last time I will explain to you why I don't think that warrant holders selling is significant. See my responses supported by actual data to your post:
QUOTE
You're asking me to prove something that just can't be proved.
What we do know is that the share price hasn't gone up while the number of outstanding shares is increasing due to warrant excersises.
There has been (and still is) increased demand for the shares, that's noticable because there have been a lot of new names showing up on this board.
Someone is supplying all that new demand.
I am shocked that someone would measure the demand for shares based upon the amount of new names showing up on a message board. You post which is ¾ of a day old now has 300 views – not a great indicator in my mind.
Luckily for you I have pulled together some data that really demonstrates investor interest in a stock – daily trading volume. The data disproves your theory that there is increased demand for shares (which is the first of the many wrong assertions that you make)
The average daily volume over the last two months is as follows:
April: 213M shares traded over 21 days for an avg of 10.1 Million shares a day
May: 101M shares traded over 20 days for avg of 5.07 million shares per day
June 10.5 million shares traded over 4 days for an avg of 2.63 million shares per day
This disproves with data that there is increasing demand for the stock lately.
QUOTE
I don't share your view on the tax implications of selling shares as one can chose which shares have been sold. Obviously one would pick the older lots with a 20% tax rate.
Now even your own commenst contradicts your proposition. If you sold older lots, then you would not be selling warrants that you exercised recently since the 20% tax rate applies to warrants held for a year
The selling of warrantholders isn't ubstantiated it makes very much sense.
Again, your comment without any data is easily disproven. If you just look at sales for the last two months, over 300million shares were sold. Even if you assume only 50% of the sales are from warrant holders, they would have had to sell over 150Million shares in just two months. Unless they are selling to other warrant holders, these size of sales would exhaust shares held by warrant holders especially if you extend the analysis for the many months you have been claiming that this situation existed. Either you were wrong before or there can’t be any shares left for warrant holders to sell from their accounts. You can’t have it both ways so were you wrong before or is this problem one that no longer exists?
QUOTE
I'm thinking of derisking, but also profit taking and warrant holders that would like to exercise but lack funds to do so or don't want to increase the liquidity put into Cydy (as the exercise price has to be paid).
People who didn’t want to increase their liquidity into CYDY simply would let their options sit unexercised since they likely have years left until they expire. If in fact they did exercise their warrants, it would actually be good for the company since exercising warrants brings in cash to the company which we desperately need. Now that there are significant gains, the smart person who exercises a warrant would hold for a year to save 17% on their tax bill (37% to 20%)
QUOTE
What is it according to you that keeps the share price from going up?
And could you provide any proof?
Cheers!
My conclusion based upon all of the facts that I provided is that warrant holders selling is not causing the stock price to be held which I believe is the assertion that you keep making.
To better support you position you should look back a year as to when warrants were executed to see the timeframe in which those help in taxable accounts might be sold which would of course depend on whether the holder thought there was a price inflection point coming in the near term in which case they still might hold a bit longer.
I await your proof and supporting data why you still think that warrant holder selling is a major factor in holding down the stock price.
IMO
Cheers,
Sunclouds
(3)
(1)CytoDyn Inc (CYDY) Stock Research Links
Scroll down for more posts ▼