CDiddy,
Nice job, very logical, makes complete sense. Thank you.
We know NYSE requires Cash and Cash Equivalents equal to the past 12 months of expenses, which have been characterized by NP as being ~$55M. We have also heard NP talk about the next capital raise taking place at a share price of ~$10, and how minimally impactful that would be in terms of dilution.
During the call, NP spoke about a capital raise of ~100M. Obviously, that amount is subject to change. In any case, I agree that a portion of the proceeds will be used to retire the financing instrument, with the remainder used for capital expenses relating to COVID and the 10 - Phase 2 trials. ( BTW: After a couple conference call playbacks, I believe that the 10 - P2 trials are inclusive of current trials -- not in addition to the current trials. So, around 5 new trials. )
To be sure, there are some near term catalysts which might have a positive effect on the stock price -- BLA acceptance/PDUFA date, financing, uplisting. However, there are also some catalysts which might put pressure on the stock price -- increasing authorized shares and shelf registration.
I could be mistaken, but I sense those last two catalysts might happen after uplisting -- but before COVID approval. I mention this only because it takes time to fully process those last two catalysts, and I'm not sure anyone will have the bandwidth to do it in the anarchy that will ensue directly after approval is granted. And those catalysts really needs to be actionable as the stock price climbs dramatically.
So, on balance, I won't be surprised to see the stock largely going sideways (with maybe a slight appreciation) until COVID approval is granted (unless, of course, I am grossly underestimating the positive effect of being on NYSE, which is possible).
However, my point is that based on an approval of both COVID indications within the same general time frame (Mild & Moderate / Severe & Critical) -- and with all of the aforementioned catalysts / achievements behind us -- I do wonder if the stock price will appreciate so dynamically that it blows through $8-10 range before it reaches some level of homeostasis.
I'm not suggesting the stock price will immediately go parabolic with no ceiling, although anything is possible. I am only acknowledging that companies typically time and price offerings when their stock is at its highest near-term level -- as it allows them to optimize the return on shares offered.
As such, it will be interesting to see exactly how these events play-out, and how the company times and prices this offering relative to COVID approval.
Nice job, very logical, makes complete sense. Thank you.
We know NYSE requires Cash and Cash Equivalents equal to the past 12 months of expenses, which have been characterized by NP as being ~$55M. We have also heard NP talk about the next capital raise taking place at a share price of ~$10, and how minimally impactful that would be in terms of dilution.
During the call, NP spoke about a capital raise of ~100M. Obviously, that amount is subject to change. In any case, I agree that a portion of the proceeds will be used to retire the financing instrument, with the remainder used for capital expenses relating to COVID and the 10 - Phase 2 trials. ( BTW: After a couple conference call playbacks, I believe that the 10 - P2 trials are inclusive of current trials -- not in addition to the current trials. So, around 5 new trials. )
To be sure, there are some near term catalysts which might have a positive effect on the stock price -- BLA acceptance/PDUFA date, financing, uplisting. However, there are also some catalysts which might put pressure on the stock price -- increasing authorized shares and shelf registration.
I could be mistaken, but I sense those last two catalysts might happen after uplisting -- but before COVID approval. I mention this only because it takes time to fully process those last two catalysts, and I'm not sure anyone will have the bandwidth to do it in the anarchy that will ensue directly after approval is granted. And those catalysts really needs to be actionable as the stock price climbs dramatically.
So, on balance, I won't be surprised to see the stock largely going sideways (with maybe a slight appreciation) until COVID approval is granted (unless, of course, I am grossly underestimating the positive effect of being on NYSE, which is possible).
However, my point is that based on an approval of both COVID indications within the same general time frame (Mild & Moderate / Severe & Critical) -- and with all of the aforementioned catalysts / achievements behind us -- I do wonder if the stock price will appreciate so dynamically that it blows through $8-10 range before it reaches some level of homeostasis.
I'm not suggesting the stock price will immediately go parabolic with no ceiling, although anything is possible. I am only acknowledging that companies typically time and price offerings when their stock is at its highest near-term level -- as it allows them to optimize the return on shares offered.
As such, it will be interesting to see exactly how these events play-out, and how the company times and prices this offering relative to COVID approval.
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