In advance of a potential COVID approval, I’ve b
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Posted On: 05/24/2020 12:42:49 PM
In advance of a potential COVID approval, I’ve been running some numbers (corrections, opinion and feedback encouraged):
Samsung is using their 180,000 liter run
That run yields 1.2M - 350mg vials
Each dose for COVID is 700mg (2-vials)
Each dose administered as 2 - 350mg shots (2-vials)
Patients have been receiving 2-doses over two weeks (4-vials)
There are plans for 3-doses for Severe/Critical Patients (6-vials)
The first of those 3-doses is anticipated to be administered via IV
There is a *possibility* that Mild cases might require only 1-dose (2-vials)
Not sure that has been tested, ergo: ‘To Be Determined’ (tbd)
- Samsung produces 1.2M vials
- Those vials represent 600k doses
- Those doses can treat 300k patients (4-vials) Current dosing
- Those doses can treat 200k patients (6-vials) Severe/Critical dosing
- Those doses can treat 600k patients (2-vials) Mild dosing (tbd)
In the context of a pandemic, assuming leronlimab is approved for COVID, CytoDyn will need to avoid the appearance of taking advantage of a global health crisis to rake in profit.
What have we learned from Gilead relating to pricing?
Here are 4 articles on the subject (Note: The projections in these articles don’t really take into account Gilead’s licensing of remdesivir to five generics makers):
As much as I like, and can rationalize, ICER’s report that concluded that remdesivir could be cost-effective at up to $4,500 per patient, I don’t think that number will be accepted. ICER Report: https://icer-review.org/announcements/alterna...emdesivir/
Low End of Range
If we assume CytoDyn’s COGS is ~$100 per dose, and we assume 2-doses are necessary to treat the majority (average) of patients – then CytoDyn’s average COGS per patient is $200. A 25% margin on top of $200 equals $50 of profit per patient – or $15M of profit for every Samsung 1.2M vial delivery.
High End of Range
If we assume CytoDyn’s pricing is $1,000 per patient, and an average patient requires 2-doses, and the COGS per dose is $100, then there is a profit of $800 per patient – or $240M of profit for every Samsung 1.2M vial delivery.
ICER Report Range
As mentioned, I don’t think ICER’s numbers will fly. However, if we assume CytoDyn’s pricing is $4,500 per patient, and an average patient requires 2-doses, and the COGS per dose is $100, then there is a profit of $4,300 per patient – or $1.290B of profit for every Samsung 1.2M vial delivery.
Samsung is using their 180,000 liter run
That run yields 1.2M - 350mg vials
Each dose for COVID is 700mg (2-vials)
Each dose administered as 2 - 350mg shots (2-vials)
Patients have been receiving 2-doses over two weeks (4-vials)
There are plans for 3-doses for Severe/Critical Patients (6-vials)
The first of those 3-doses is anticipated to be administered via IV
There is a *possibility* that Mild cases might require only 1-dose (2-vials)
Not sure that has been tested, ergo: ‘To Be Determined’ (tbd)
- Samsung produces 1.2M vials
- Those vials represent 600k doses
- Those doses can treat 300k patients (4-vials) Current dosing
- Those doses can treat 200k patients (6-vials) Severe/Critical dosing
- Those doses can treat 600k patients (2-vials) Mild dosing (tbd)
In the context of a pandemic, assuming leronlimab is approved for COVID, CytoDyn will need to avoid the appearance of taking advantage of a global health crisis to rake in profit.
What have we learned from Gilead relating to pricing?
Here are 4 articles on the subject (Note: The projections in these articles don’t really take into account Gilead’s licensing of remdesivir to five generics makers):
Quote:My take-away from these articles it that per patient pricing (not per dose pricing) will need to be somewhere between: COGS +25% at the low end of the range – and around $1,000 at the high end of the range. Again, this is per patient pricing and not per dose pricing.
Less than a movie ticket or ‘impossible to overpay’? Experts name their price for remdesivir
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/15/gilead-re...ronavirus/
Can the price be right? With the world watching, Gilead faces a no-win decision on remdesivir
https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/waitin...-treatment
Putting A Price On COVID-19 Treatment Remdesivir
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/202...remdesivir
Fair price for Gilead's COVID-19 med remdesivir? $4,460, cost watchdog says
https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/gilead...g-watchdog
As much as I like, and can rationalize, ICER’s report that concluded that remdesivir could be cost-effective at up to $4,500 per patient, I don’t think that number will be accepted. ICER Report: https://icer-review.org/announcements/alterna...emdesivir/
Low End of Range
If we assume CytoDyn’s COGS is ~$100 per dose, and we assume 2-doses are necessary to treat the majority (average) of patients – then CytoDyn’s average COGS per patient is $200. A 25% margin on top of $200 equals $50 of profit per patient – or $15M of profit for every Samsung 1.2M vial delivery.
High End of Range
If we assume CytoDyn’s pricing is $1,000 per patient, and an average patient requires 2-doses, and the COGS per dose is $100, then there is a profit of $800 per patient – or $240M of profit for every Samsung 1.2M vial delivery.
ICER Report Range
As mentioned, I don’t think ICER’s numbers will fly. However, if we assume CytoDyn’s pricing is $4,500 per patient, and an average patient requires 2-doses, and the COGS per dose is $100, then there is a profit of $4,300 per patient – or $1.290B of profit for every Samsung 1.2M vial delivery.
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