Production Estimates Based on the James West Lette
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Posted On: 04/30/2020 4:04:34 PM
Production Estimates Based on the James West Letter Video
Video Link: https://youtu.be/RrC51JeEU3Q?t=3
We currently have 40k vials, which represents 20k doses (patients typically need either 1 or 2 doses).
AGC, CytoDyn’s clinical trial producer, will hopefully begin sending 600k-700k vials beginning in June/July (this can perhaps be expedited according to Dr. NP). However, my understanding is that AGC is a small batch producer.
Samsung Biologics may be able to produce 5M vials by around August/September. However, Samsung has represented to Dr. NP that their production availability is virtually "unlimited". I'm not sure exactly what that means -- there would have to be some 'brick wall' limit -- and there are FDA issues with expanding to different facilities.
There has been talk about a vaccine possibly becoming available in 12-18 months. Recently, earlier time frames have been publicized in the media, but it is currently impossible to know if these are realistic. However, there is also a very real possibility that a vaccine will be impossible to produce (See this post: https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=5752816)
Until a vaccine is developed, produced, distributed, and injected on a global scale -- there are ~7.6 billion people on this planet -- the entire world will need an effective therapeutic as a backstop. And, let's not forget that there is clear evidence supporting the fact that one can seemingly contract COVID multiple times.
Worldwide Demand
If the world is to return to any level of normalcy, and if leronlimab alone is determined to be the Standard of Care, I have to believe that Samsung will need to commit to producing somewhere around 100M doses per month (or more). That's 1.2B doses per year -- for as many years as it takes for the vast majority of the world's population to be vaccinated (if that is even possible).
I believe it was our esteemed CDiddy that floated the notion that CytoDyn's "standard" pricing is roughly $1,000 per dose, with a 90% profit margin. That means the cost per dose might be $100.
If CytoDyn could sell leronlimab for COVID indications for $200-250 per dose, and ask the governments to assist with delivery and other costs, there would conceivably be a $100 profit per dose.
CDiddy's Post: https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=574...z6KeHD4JPi
Extending that logic out to 1.2B doses per year, and using a conservative profit margin of $100/dose, that equates to ~$120B of Net Income per year -- for as many years as leronlimab might be needed.
Using the fully authorized shares number of 700M, that's $171 per share WITHOUT a P/E multiple applied. For the record, a very conservative P/E multiple for a biotech would be in the realm of 10x.
Just my opinion. Happy to hear others.
Video Link: https://youtu.be/RrC51JeEU3Q?t=3
We currently have 40k vials, which represents 20k doses (patients typically need either 1 or 2 doses).
AGC, CytoDyn’s clinical trial producer, will hopefully begin sending 600k-700k vials beginning in June/July (this can perhaps be expedited according to Dr. NP). However, my understanding is that AGC is a small batch producer.
Samsung Biologics may be able to produce 5M vials by around August/September. However, Samsung has represented to Dr. NP that their production availability is virtually "unlimited". I'm not sure exactly what that means -- there would have to be some 'brick wall' limit -- and there are FDA issues with expanding to different facilities.
There has been talk about a vaccine possibly becoming available in 12-18 months. Recently, earlier time frames have been publicized in the media, but it is currently impossible to know if these are realistic. However, there is also a very real possibility that a vaccine will be impossible to produce (See this post: https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=5752816)
Until a vaccine is developed, produced, distributed, and injected on a global scale -- there are ~7.6 billion people on this planet -- the entire world will need an effective therapeutic as a backstop. And, let's not forget that there is clear evidence supporting the fact that one can seemingly contract COVID multiple times.
Worldwide Demand
If the world is to return to any level of normalcy, and if leronlimab alone is determined to be the Standard of Care, I have to believe that Samsung will need to commit to producing somewhere around 100M doses per month (or more). That's 1.2B doses per year -- for as many years as it takes for the vast majority of the world's population to be vaccinated (if that is even possible).
I believe it was our esteemed CDiddy that floated the notion that CytoDyn's "standard" pricing is roughly $1,000 per dose, with a 90% profit margin. That means the cost per dose might be $100.
If CytoDyn could sell leronlimab for COVID indications for $200-250 per dose, and ask the governments to assist with delivery and other costs, there would conceivably be a $100 profit per dose.
CDiddy's Post: https://investorshangout.com/post/view?id=574...z6KeHD4JPi
Extending that logic out to 1.2B doses per year, and using a conservative profit margin of $100/dose, that equates to ~$120B of Net Income per year -- for as many years as leronlimab might be needed.
Using the fully authorized shares number of 700M, that's $171 per share WITHOUT a P/E multiple applied. For the record, a very conservative P/E multiple for a biotech would be in the realm of 10x.
Just my opinion. Happy to hear others.
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