Using Elliot wave fractals to anticipate important
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Posted On: 04/29/2020 3:28:11 PM
Re: Crujones1985 #30742
Using Elliot wave fractals to anticipate important buy/sell areas
A trader named Elliot from the 1930s first observed that bull markets tend to move in five-wave fractal channels. It's a fractal because the structures sub-divide self-similarly to be visible at any time scale:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-fract..._257312966
Usually the third wave is longest and strongest. So from experience fractal technicians can look at incomplete structures and predict how it will fill out over time.
Where many posters here try to explain the big drops from short attacks or competitor news, they are inevitable oscillations that emerge from waves of fear and greed pulsing through the crowd of investors. No one's found out how to prove this per se, but Elliot believed these 5-waves structures maximize pain and anxiety for the majority of investors, i.e. shake out as many people as possible before moving higher.
I'm hugely long and only scalp a bit around a core holding. CYDY is too valuable to flip in and out your whole position, and fractals aren't perfectly accurate so that risks flipping out while CYDY doubles again. But if you need to take some profits to pay off a mortgage, or get some original investment out for safety, 4.1-4.6 looks like the next good price range to do that, just like 3.85 was major stopping point yesterday.
In a conservative interpretation of the fractal growth over the past 6 months, $4.1-4.6 range will be 5 waves up on large timescale which would be followed by larger correction towards $2. It's possible news is so stupendously good we go even higher in May, but at minimum we expect $4.1-4.6 for next upside wave.
A trader named Elliot from the 1930s first observed that bull markets tend to move in five-wave fractal channels. It's a fractal because the structures sub-divide self-similarly to be visible at any time scale:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-fract..._257312966
Usually the third wave is longest and strongest. So from experience fractal technicians can look at incomplete structures and predict how it will fill out over time.
Where many posters here try to explain the big drops from short attacks or competitor news, they are inevitable oscillations that emerge from waves of fear and greed pulsing through the crowd of investors. No one's found out how to prove this per se, but Elliot believed these 5-waves structures maximize pain and anxiety for the majority of investors, i.e. shake out as many people as possible before moving higher.
I'm hugely long and only scalp a bit around a core holding. CYDY is too valuable to flip in and out your whole position, and fractals aren't perfectly accurate so that risks flipping out while CYDY doubles again. But if you need to take some profits to pay off a mortgage, or get some original investment out for safety, 4.1-4.6 looks like the next good price range to do that, just like 3.85 was major stopping point yesterday.
In a conservative interpretation of the fractal growth over the past 6 months, $4.1-4.6 range will be 5 waves up on large timescale which would be followed by larger correction towards $2. It's possible news is so stupendously good we go even higher in May, but at minimum we expect $4.1-4.6 for next upside wave.
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