Very interesting SA comments from a knowledgeable person.
abl57
Comments340 | + Follow
I listened to the entire call last week. One could not help but be impressed with Drs. Patterson and Lalezari. Also, I don't think Dr. Kelly would walk away from one the biggest ortho groups in the country if he was not confident about getting this across the goal line.
As noted before, I am a former hospital CEO, having run a 100 bed hospital for 15 years along with an 8 year stint as the regional president of a $2.3 billion health system. I also spent two years as the VP of payer strategy for one of Optum Health's care delivery organizations where I was responsible for running a full risk Medicare Advantage product as well as overseeing our accountable care organization with 35,000 attributed lives so you could say I am a SME on both hospital and managed care economics.
While I still believe oncology is the real potential home run for Leronlimab, you can't deny its potential to reduce hospital costs for both CV and really anyone with ARDS-like symptoms. People forget that in the last 8 years hospitals have averaged roughly 143,000 ARDS discharges so even if CV wanes, there will be a huge market for Leronmilab. BP likes to tout that its $$$$$ drugs are worth it because they keep people out of the hospital, yet for 20 years much of that evidence is indirect. If you look at pharma's total spend relative to the entire health care pie, it's more than doubled in the past three years, and much of that has been with biologics. I can't disclose the number on here, but just Humira's part of the overall healthcare pie is now almost beyond belief.
If Leronmilab can keep even half the CV patients out of the hospital (I believe Dr. Patterson says it should be given at the first hint to risky patients who have any shortness of breath), by my quick calculations, that coud save at least $500,000,000 in hospital costs. The work on ARDS would be much greater than that so let's call it $1.2 billion in the US alone. This is a drug that can be proven unequivocally to reduce health care costs, and if you figure $20,000 per hospitalization (remember in the US the vast majority of IP care is paid for via capitation so the hospitals get killed taking care of catastrophic patients), Leronmilab priced at $2,000 a regimen has like a true 10-1 ROI. IMHO it's one of those rare drugs that all sides of health care system can get behind both clinically and economically not to mention the public health and psychology of using it to "take Covid out of the hospitals." I could foresee, once the data is out and it's as good as the MD's predict it will be, one could see CMS, Anthem, UHC and Humana lining up behind this very quickly.
https://seekingalpha.com/user/21165261/comments
abl57
Comments340 | + Follow
I listened to the entire call last week. One could not help but be impressed with Drs. Patterson and Lalezari. Also, I don't think Dr. Kelly would walk away from one the biggest ortho groups in the country if he was not confident about getting this across the goal line.
As noted before, I am a former hospital CEO, having run a 100 bed hospital for 15 years along with an 8 year stint as the regional president of a $2.3 billion health system. I also spent two years as the VP of payer strategy for one of Optum Health's care delivery organizations where I was responsible for running a full risk Medicare Advantage product as well as overseeing our accountable care organization with 35,000 attributed lives so you could say I am a SME on both hospital and managed care economics.
While I still believe oncology is the real potential home run for Leronlimab, you can't deny its potential to reduce hospital costs for both CV and really anyone with ARDS-like symptoms. People forget that in the last 8 years hospitals have averaged roughly 143,000 ARDS discharges so even if CV wanes, there will be a huge market for Leronmilab. BP likes to tout that its $$$$$ drugs are worth it because they keep people out of the hospital, yet for 20 years much of that evidence is indirect. If you look at pharma's total spend relative to the entire health care pie, it's more than doubled in the past three years, and much of that has been with biologics. I can't disclose the number on here, but just Humira's part of the overall healthcare pie is now almost beyond belief.
If Leronmilab can keep even half the CV patients out of the hospital (I believe Dr. Patterson says it should be given at the first hint to risky patients who have any shortness of breath), by my quick calculations, that coud save at least $500,000,000 in hospital costs. The work on ARDS would be much greater than that so let's call it $1.2 billion in the US alone. This is a drug that can be proven unequivocally to reduce health care costs, and if you figure $20,000 per hospitalization (remember in the US the vast majority of IP care is paid for via capitation so the hospitals get killed taking care of catastrophic patients), Leronmilab priced at $2,000 a regimen has like a true 10-1 ROI. IMHO it's one of those rare drugs that all sides of health care system can get behind both clinically and economically not to mention the public health and psychology of using it to "take Covid out of the hospitals." I could foresee, once the data is out and it's as good as the MD's predict it will be, one could see CMS, Anthem, UHC and Humana lining up behind this very quickly.
https://seekingalpha.com/user/21165261/comments
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Le-Ron-Li-Mab, and they have not.
Le-Ron-Li-Mab, and they have not.
