Looking back at the prospects of a buyout, For 2-3
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Posted On: 04/19/2020 2:29:15 PM
Looking back at the prospects of a buyout, For 2-3 years Cytodyn has had proof of concept for Leronlimab as a combo and mono HIV drug. Any potential partner could go into the data room and look at the trial results in detail and know what this is. Leronlimab is actually too far along as a HIV drug, typically buyouts happen around phase 2 when the certainty of the safety and effectiveness is beginning to be proven but the cost and "go at it alone" attitude has not happened yet. My guess is that any offers that might have been discussed were not anywhere good enough during this period.
When Pestell got involved and this became an Oncology drug, I think it is obvious that Nader and the BOD were not interested in any BO until they developed this enough to show with certainty that this is a cancer drug. Fortunately the speed we are moving at (not fast enough for some, but pretty fast historically) means answers to this will be soon. Soon enough to hold off any serious BO discussions until trial results are in the books.
The Covid application is even faster in its proof of concept process and again means Nader and the BOD have very little interest to discuss partnerships or BO until they again know what this is.
Any VC or BP that can think about a BO or partnership has so far had the attitude that they want there current pipline to live longer, they don't feel Leronlimab is a treat to them and the opportunity is not hot enough yet. They certainly know about Cytodyn, the point at which they must act is soon. The rumor that a partner trial with the Gilead drug and Leronlimab might be a sign of Gilead knowing they need to jump on this fast in some way. BP is getting to the point where they know they do not have a drug for Covid and won't for a long time.
There is no doubt that the past deals of funding were put on hold because the position from where they are negotiating is changing (for the better) so rapidly. I don't think the Nader or the BOD fear access to funds to move forward as they did for years when the Combo HIV trials were active. I also think the nature and size of a buyout or parnerships will be impossible to know until it happens. Leronlimab has been a valuable drug for years and despite all logic - no done offers besides Vyera.
Guessing at a BO price is crazy, even with very rational market penetration, similar examples, industry standards etc.. This drug is moving at light speed in its value creation like no other drug has. I am guessing that Nader feels very strong that this is worth many billions weather it is from licensing or buy out.
The hard part, in a good way, is how to manage the trip we are about to take. If the SP moves up to $5-$10, many will want to take the profit at least in part. I am not sure how i will unwind my position as this plays out, will I be pissed if i sell some at $5 and realize i could have waited a few weeks for $30? No idea but I look for ward to dealing with that! A buy out really would make our lives easier in that regard.
When Pestell got involved and this became an Oncology drug, I think it is obvious that Nader and the BOD were not interested in any BO until they developed this enough to show with certainty that this is a cancer drug. Fortunately the speed we are moving at (not fast enough for some, but pretty fast historically) means answers to this will be soon. Soon enough to hold off any serious BO discussions until trial results are in the books.
The Covid application is even faster in its proof of concept process and again means Nader and the BOD have very little interest to discuss partnerships or BO until they again know what this is.
Any VC or BP that can think about a BO or partnership has so far had the attitude that they want there current pipline to live longer, they don't feel Leronlimab is a treat to them and the opportunity is not hot enough yet. They certainly know about Cytodyn, the point at which they must act is soon. The rumor that a partner trial with the Gilead drug and Leronlimab might be a sign of Gilead knowing they need to jump on this fast in some way. BP is getting to the point where they know they do not have a drug for Covid and won't for a long time.
There is no doubt that the past deals of funding were put on hold because the position from where they are negotiating is changing (for the better) so rapidly. I don't think the Nader or the BOD fear access to funds to move forward as they did for years when the Combo HIV trials were active. I also think the nature and size of a buyout or parnerships will be impossible to know until it happens. Leronlimab has been a valuable drug for years and despite all logic - no done offers besides Vyera.
Guessing at a BO price is crazy, even with very rational market penetration, similar examples, industry standards etc.. This drug is moving at light speed in its value creation like no other drug has. I am guessing that Nader feels very strong that this is worth many billions weather it is from licensing or buy out.
The hard part, in a good way, is how to manage the trip we are about to take. If the SP moves up to $5-$10, many will want to take the profit at least in part. I am not sure how i will unwind my position as this plays out, will I be pissed if i sell some at $5 and realize i could have waited a few weeks for $30? No idea but I look for ward to dealing with that! A buy out really would make our lives easier in that regard.
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