A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances
A Commentary By Alan I. Abramowitz
Thursday, March 19, 2020
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity.
— Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall.
— A recession could seriously damage President Donald Trump’s reelection chances.
— However, we are in truly uncharted territory, and it’s unclear how the public will respond electorally to an economic downturn forced by a pandemic.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_conte...dium=email
Discussion and Conclusions
Based on the results of presidential elections since World War II with running incumbents, a president with an upside-down approval rating and an economy in recession would have little chance of winning a second term in the White House. If President Trump’s net approval rating remains where it is now or declines further, and if the recession is severe, with real GDP shrinking by three points or more in the second quarter, the result could well be a defeat of landslide proportions.
A few caveats are in order here. Voters may not hold an incumbent president responsible for a recession brought on by an unforeseeable disaster like the coronavirus pandemic — although they may hold him responsible for the government’s response to the pandemic, which is a story that is still being written.
Moreover, in our current era of deep partisan polarization, events like recessions may not have as great an impact on an incumbent’s electoral fortunes as they did in the past. We have seen that President Trump’s approval rating has been remarkably stable due to almost unwavering support from his fellow Republicans and equally unwavering opposition from Democrats.
On the other hand, polarization might also mean that an incumbent, especially one who makes little effort to appeal to voters outside of his own party’s base, might not receive the full benefit of incumbency, which depends on the ability of an incumbent to attract votes across party lines.
Finally, the fact that our forecasts are based on only 11 elections should make us cautious in interpreting these results despite the impressive accuracy of the model.
Overall, one of the best arguments in favor of the president winning a second term has been strong economic performance for much of his term. The public health crisis seems very likely to depress that performance for at least the next few months. This poses an electoral threat to the president, which the model vividly demonstrates.
A Commentary By Alan I. Abramowitz
Thursday, March 19, 2020
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity.
— Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall.
— A recession could seriously damage President Donald Trump’s reelection chances.
— However, we are in truly uncharted territory, and it’s unclear how the public will respond electorally to an economic downturn forced by a pandemic.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_conte...dium=email
Discussion and Conclusions
Based on the results of presidential elections since World War II with running incumbents, a president with an upside-down approval rating and an economy in recession would have little chance of winning a second term in the White House. If President Trump’s net approval rating remains where it is now or declines further, and if the recession is severe, with real GDP shrinking by three points or more in the second quarter, the result could well be a defeat of landslide proportions.
A few caveats are in order here. Voters may not hold an incumbent president responsible for a recession brought on by an unforeseeable disaster like the coronavirus pandemic — although they may hold him responsible for the government’s response to the pandemic, which is a story that is still being written.
Moreover, in our current era of deep partisan polarization, events like recessions may not have as great an impact on an incumbent’s electoral fortunes as they did in the past. We have seen that President Trump’s approval rating has been remarkably stable due to almost unwavering support from his fellow Republicans and equally unwavering opposition from Democrats.
On the other hand, polarization might also mean that an incumbent, especially one who makes little effort to appeal to voters outside of his own party’s base, might not receive the full benefit of incumbency, which depends on the ability of an incumbent to attract votes across party lines.
Finally, the fact that our forecasts are based on only 11 elections should make us cautious in interpreting these results despite the impressive accuracy of the model.
Overall, one of the best arguments in favor of the president winning a second term has been strong economic performance for much of his term. The public health crisis seems very likely to depress that performance for at least the next few months. This poses an electoral threat to the president, which the model vividly demonstrates.
