Looking for the silver lining: I see the share
Post# of 36568
(Total Views: 318)
Posted On: 03/11/2020 1:37:00 PM
Looking for the silver lining:
I see the share count at 67MM... maybe that's low? Anyway, let's say it's 75MM. Who knows what the next 10-Q or 2 will show. But what if we were to make $3MM net income by the end of the fiscal year (end of July).
That would be $0.04/share. At a non-growth 15x multiple, we would be legitimately supporting a $0.60 share price with NOTHING added for any of the larger things "in the hopper"... Corona vaccine, NGIO spin, Excellagen licensing, etc. let alone any value for AZ ops, etc., etc. It really won't take much to get us there.
So the way I keep looking at this is it's a pass/fail. We either fall short this year and go back toward $0, or we connect the dots by hitting at least ONE single or double (we'd certainly take a triple or a home run as well), generating enough cash (or interest to push SP and access S-1 cash) to start winding up ops.
So if you feel like you're seeing the "fail" coming, maybe it's time to take some $ off the table or sell it all and put this in the rear view mirror.
I still think there is enough involvement from fantastic scientists and enough interesting products and services that the "pass" is likely enough for me to leave my money on the table (although I'm not putting any more in...). In the meantime, I will continue to swallow a lot of frustration and also ignore the SP as much as I can... We're either looking at a multiple dollar SP or $0 within 6-9 months (IMHO) so NONE of this ST price action (another sharp rise followed by another slow dribble down) matters in the long run, unless you're getting in/out.
That said, I have limited hopes for this 10-Q to show us much in the way of a movement toward profitability. But signs of life in the 10-Q plus a concrete NGIO spin update in the next 2 weeks would go a long way.
I see the share count at 67MM... maybe that's low? Anyway, let's say it's 75MM. Who knows what the next 10-Q or 2 will show. But what if we were to make $3MM net income by the end of the fiscal year (end of July).
That would be $0.04/share. At a non-growth 15x multiple, we would be legitimately supporting a $0.60 share price with NOTHING added for any of the larger things "in the hopper"... Corona vaccine, NGIO spin, Excellagen licensing, etc. let alone any value for AZ ops, etc., etc. It really won't take much to get us there.
So the way I keep looking at this is it's a pass/fail. We either fall short this year and go back toward $0, or we connect the dots by hitting at least ONE single or double (we'd certainly take a triple or a home run as well), generating enough cash (or interest to push SP and access S-1 cash) to start winding up ops.
So if you feel like you're seeing the "fail" coming, maybe it's time to take some $ off the table or sell it all and put this in the rear view mirror.
I still think there is enough involvement from fantastic scientists and enough interesting products and services that the "pass" is likely enough for me to leave my money on the table (although I'm not putting any more in...). In the meantime, I will continue to swallow a lot of frustration and also ignore the SP as much as I can... We're either looking at a multiple dollar SP or $0 within 6-9 months (IMHO) so NONE of this ST price action (another sharp rise followed by another slow dribble down) matters in the long run, unless you're getting in/out.
That said, I have limited hopes for this 10-Q to show us much in the way of a movement toward profitability. But signs of life in the 10-Q plus a concrete NGIO spin update in the next 2 weeks would go a long way.
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