Spanish Band-Aid hasn't stopped the blood
The weekend bailout deal makes it so the nation's banks are not teetering, but it does not address the bigger issue.
Why doesn't anyone ever consider anything permanent relief? Why doesn't anyone say, "This is not a Band-Aid, this is the real thing"? Why can't anyone say "This puts it all past us, it is what we have been waiting for"?
Isn't that what's on your mind? Aren't you getting upset that people don't just say, "This Spanish bank bailout is what the markets are looking for, and we don't have to worry anymore"?
But there is a reason, and it has to do with the deep nature of all the issues involved and their inability to be solved piecemeal.
First, each country has a twofold problem . They all have banks that are teetering because no one trusts them to stay afloat. And they have nations that must issue debt constantly to pay their bills.
The Spanish deal this weekend makes it so the banks are not teetering. It does not address the sovereign bonds at all. Even after the $125 billion injection into the banking system, the Spanish bonds don't seem more attractive than they did before.
Here's why.
The only real natural buyers of Spanish bonds to date have been Spanish banks. They own more than half the Spanish bonds out there. We don't know anything about which banks are getting what and at what rate. All the Spanish banks have immense amount of debt issued themselves to fund their operations. Do the debt holders get bailed out as these banks do Citigroup ( C -4.65% )-like recaps and dilute the equity? Or is this like TARP, where the banks take a federal preferred and then pay it back over time?
We don't know.
Now, I am not saying that this is all a big waste of time. This money should stop the runs on the banks that were happening but not being acknowledged. That's a positive and a big one. It is why we rallied last week on the notion of a bank recap.
But still, it did not give us natural buyers of Spanish bonds. In fact, I worry that all that will happen with the $125 billion is that the banks will use it to buy more Spanish debt.
What we needed was something that also addressed the sovereign debt side, not just the bank debt side, because anything that addresses only one segment is just a Band-Aid or a tourniquet or whatever non-substantive-meas?ure analogy you want to take.
We needed a new institution with fresh capital that would buy the sovereign bonds from countries trying hard to cut their deficits while not choosing to lend to those who don't. We needed a cordon on those that don't get their act together -- think Greece -- and a welcome mat to those that do.
So while this action might keep the depositors from running to other countries, it does not cause investment in Spanish bonds that needs to be made while Spain gets its act together.
Simultaneously, with an actual entity to buy Spanish bonds, the entity must also spur some growth that will then raise tax receipts and turn a vicious cycle down into a virtuous cycle up where we think, hmm, Spanish bonds yielding 6% versus U.S. bonds yielding 2% -- I will take that chance, knowing that both the government and the currency are solvent.
We didn't get that either.
Now, where would we all be wrong and the situation/solution be good enough? If there were suddenly demand for all of the bad loans and vacant property that these banks own. Perhaps they can use the fresh capital to make it so the bad loans are taken off their balance sheet. Perhaps there is such a plan that we do not know about.
But without something that spurs growth, that creates a reason to buy Spanish government bonds, and that makes you feel that Spain is investible with private capital, all we have is something that might forestall runs on Spanish banks if the Greeks establish a government this weekend that wants out of the euro.
That's all it really does. It stops one horrible thing -- bank runs -- from happening ahead of the Greek elections . That's good. It's one piece of the puzzle. But the puzzle is huge and is still not being addressed.
You simply have to ask yourself two questions when you are trying to figure this stuff out. One, would you now take your capital and buy Spanish bank stocks? And two, would you now buy Spanish banks?
I will give you the short answer: I wouldn't even put a deposit in a Spanish bank, let alone buy the stock of a bank or buy a Spanish bond.
It's just not worth the risk. Until it is, we are not out of the woods. We just keep the lines from forming outside one of the nine remaining Spanish banks.
That's not what turns a stock market around in this country. It just keeps it from going south. For now.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS , which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.
